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Informist, Friday, Jun. 12, 2026

 

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--India May CPI inflation 3.93% vs 3.48% Apr
--Informist Poll estimated India May CPI inflation at 4.0%
--India May CPI food inflation 4.78% vs 4.20% Apr
--India May CPI rural inflation 4.25% vs 3.74% Apr
--India May CPI urban inflation 3.53% vs 3.16% Apr
--India May CPI food and beverages inflation 4.55% vs 4.01% Apr
--India May CPI 'paan, tobacco, and intoxicants' inflation 4.83% vs 4.76% Apr
--India May CPI clothing and footwear inflation 2.98% vs 2.80% Apr
--India May CPI housing and utilities inflation 1.73% vs 1.71% Apr
--India May CPI furnishings, household equipment inflation 1.89% vs 1.61% Apr
--India May CPI health inflation 1.49% vs 1.64% Apr
--India May CPI transport inflation 1.75% vs -0.01% Apr
--India May CPI information and communication inflation 0.3% vs 0.50% Apr
--India May CPI 'recreation, sport, and culture' inflation 1.98% vs 2.11% Apr
--India May CPI educational services inflation 2.99% vs 3.15% Apr
--India May CPI restaurants, accommodation svcs inflation 5.75% vs 4.20% Apr
--India May CPI personal care and miscellaneous inflation 18.46% vs 17.7% Apr
--India May CPI general index up 0.8% on month
--India May CPI food price index up 0.9% on month
--India May CPI core inflation 3.8% vs 3.4% Apr
--India May CPI inflation of 3.93% highest in 16 months
 

 

NEW DELHI – India's headline inflation, based on the CPI, rose to a 16-month high of 3.93% in May on the back of higher food, fuel, and personal care inflation, data released Friday by the statistics ministry showed. Retail inflation in May remained below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term inflation target of 4%.

 

Headline inflation in May was slightly below expectations. According to an Informist Poll, headline inflation was seen at 4%. CPI inflation was 3.48% in April and 3.03% in May 2025.

 

The food price index was up 0.9% on month in May, which led to a 0.8% month-on-month rise in the general index from April.

 

Even as the war in West Asia is now in its fourth month, retail prices in India have not seen as sharp a rise as wholesale prices. While crude oil, commercial cooking gas, and industrial fuel prices have jumped because of the war, the pass-on to retail consumers has been limited so far. While oil marketing companies did raise retail fuel prices in May by over INR 7 per litre, the hikes were spread across the month and the full impact on CPI inflation is expected to be felt in the June CPI print.

 

The biggest rise in inflation in May was seen in food and fuel categories. Core inflation, which excludes fuel and food items, also rose to 3.8% in May from 3.4% in April.

 

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation rose 1.73% on month in May from 1.71% in April. Transport inflation rose to 1.75% in May from (-)0.01% in April. The 'operation of personal transport equipment' inflation, which includes fuel used for personal transport, rose to 3.06% in May from 0.12% in May.

 

Food inflation rose to 4.78% in May from 4.20% a month ago. Eating out continued to become more expensive with 'food and beverage serving services' inflation rising to 5.77% last month from 4.21% in April.

 

Tomato inflation was 48.43% in May, ginger inflation was 32.49%, and raisins inflation was 21.97%. Among the five key items with low inflation in May, potato inflation was (-)23.71% and peas inflation was (-)11.47%. Food and beverages inflation was 4.55% in May, higher than 4.01% in April.

 

The personal care and miscellaneous category recorded the highest inflation in May at 18.46%, driven by higher import duty on gold and silver. Silver jewellery recorded the highest inflation in May at 155.23%, with 'gold, diamond, and platinum jewellery' inflation at 40.93%.

 

Rural inflation was higher at 4.25% in May compared with urban inflation at 3.53%. In April, rural inflation was 3.74% and urban inflation was 3.16%.

 

Among states and Union territories, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry reported the highest inflation in May at 6.15%, 5.11%, and 5.00%, respectively. Mizoram at 1.03% and Tripura at 2.02% reported the lowest inflation last month.

 

INFLATION OUTLOOK

Inflation is projected to rise in the coming months because of a further rise in food and fuel prices. The RBI last week raised its CPI inflation projection for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) by 50 bps to 5.1% with inflation seen rising to 5.9% in the December quarter, just shy of the upper bound of the central bank's 2-6% tolerance range.

 

"The risks here are skewed to the upside, in view of the jump in fertiliser costs due to the supply issues caused by the war (in West Asia) and the prospect of an extremely dry southwest monsoon season," Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Marcoeconomics, said in a note. Rating agency ICRA sees CPI inflation rising to around 4.5% in June.

 

With inflation seen rising above the 4% target in FY27, economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates later this financial year by 50-100 bps.

 

"While we believe that the next move on rates is likely to be a hike, its timing would depend on how geopolitical and macro developments, including the severity of the El Nino, transmit to a generalisation of inflationary pressures; the October and December 2026 policy meetings could be live for potential rate hike(s), after there is some clarity on the monsoon impact," Rahul Agrawal, principal economist at ICRA, said in a note.

 

The following table details the general index of the CPI and inflation for May:

 

	Weight	Index for May	Month-on-month change (in %)	Inflation for May	Inflation for April
Food and beverages	36.75	105.26	0.9	4.55%	4.01%
Paan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.99	107.74	0.5	4.83%	4.77%
Clothing and footwear	6.38	107.41	0.5	2.98%	2.80%
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	17.67	103.10	0.3	1.73%	1.71%
Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance	4.47	104.29	0.5	1.89%	1.61%
Health	6.1	104.30	0.1	1.49%	1.65%
Transport	8.8	102.73	1.9	1.75%	(-)0.01%
Information and communication	3.61	103.84	0.2	0.30%	0.50%
Recreation, sport and culture	1.52	104.20	0.0	1.98%	2.11%
Education services	3.33	106.21	0.3	2.99%	3.15%
Restaurants and accommodation services	3.35	109.91	1.8	5.75%	4.22%
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services	5.04	125.53	1.2	18.46%	17.66%
Consumer Food Price Index	34.78	105.35	0.9	4.78%	4.20%
All India	100	105.91	0.8	3.93%	3.48%

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. 

 

End

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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