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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 10, 2026

 

--Rystad Energy Galimberti: Likely that oil prices remain at $100/bbl in 2026

--CONTEXT: Rystad Energy Economist Claudio Galimberti's comments in Mumbai

--Rystad Energy: Our base case is we will see a narrow deal between US, Iran

--Rystad Energy: Expect trade via Hormuz to reach pre-war level by Dec

--Rystad Energy: UAE leaving OPEC to have limited short-term impact

--Rystad Energy:UAE leaving OPEC to have significant medium, long-term impact

--Rystad Energy: Impact of US-Iran war on global macro-econ transitory

--Rystad Energy: LNG supply seeing structural weakness because of W Asia war

 

MUMBAI – Demand and production of liquefied natural gas have been negatively affected since the war between the US and Iran broke out on Feb. 28, with the commodity structurally impacted, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. Demand for LNG, especially in Asia, may rise going forward, but at a slower pace than before the war began, he said. 

 

LNG supply is expected to be affected in the short- to medium-term, as repair work at the Ras Laffan gas plant may take 3-5 years to complete. "... the energy curve for Asia still goes up dramatically. So we're still talking about a huge increase in demand (for LNG)," Galimberti said at an event in Mumbai. "But it's not as strong as before the crisis, because in some cases, if there are alternatives, coal is the biggest alternative so far."

 

The impact of the war on the global macroeconomy has only been transitory, he said. The energy research company predicts that the US and Iran may agree to a "narrow" deal soon, allowing both countries to claim a victory. In the base case, Galimberti expects the Strait of Hormuz to open for trade sometime in July, but the trade through the chokepoint may reach pre-war levels only around December.

 

While Rystad Energy forecasts an imminent deal between the warring nations, it doesn't expect crude oil prices to fall immediately. This is because trade through the Strait of Hormuz is not likely to return to pre-war levels until the end of this year. It is possible Brent crude oil futures could remain around $100 per barrel in 2026, Galimberti said. Oil prices will come back to pre-war levels sometime in 2028, he said.

 

In the midst of the war, the UAE left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The Gulf nation was the second-most important within the cartel in terms of spare capacity. The research firm expects the UAE to significantly boost oil production now that it has left OPEC.

 

"They probably have 1.5 million barrels a day of spare capacity. They may decide to deploy as soon as this crisis is over," he said. "This is very structural. And you may argue this is not directly related to the crisis, I would argue that probably without the crisis, it would have happened later," he added. In all, the UAE leaving OPEC may have a limited impact on oil markets in the short term but a significant medium- and long-term impact, Rystad Energy said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Anshul Choudhary and Anand JC

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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