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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 10, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Analysts expect the headline stock indices to remain in a phase of consolidation in the near term unless there is a consequential movement in crude oil prices. Amid the fresh escalation in the war in West Asia, investors are prioritising crude oil price movements more. From Tuesday's high of $94 a barrel, crude oil prices fell to $92 a barrel Wednesday. The update on the US-Iran peace deal is also seen as a major factor that could alter the market's direction.

 

In a major development, US President Donald Trump said Iran has to pay the price as the country took too long to negotiate a peace deal with the US. "Iran's Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn't even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!," Trump posted Wednesday on social media.

 

"If the crude oil prices are cooling off to below $70 to $80 per barrel, that's where you can see Indian market's recovery in a stronger phase," Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, said. Bathini also sees the market being stuck in a range unless the price of crude oil falls.

 

Fitch Ratings has cut India's GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) by 30 basis points to 6.4% in view of the US-Iran war. The rating agency, however, raised its India growth projection for FY28 by 20 basis points to 6.7%. Economists at the rating agency see India's economic growth picking up in FY28 due to the unwinding of the energy supply shock, along with stronger consumer spending and investment, it said Tuesday in a report.

 

The inflows into open-ended equity mutual funds recorded in May were INR 229.08 billion, data for the month from the Association of Mutual Funds in India showed. This is the lowest inflow recorded in 2026. "The decline in equity inflows reflects investors' nervousness given the evolving macroeconomic landscape," Ashwini Shami, president and chief portfolio manager at OmniScience Capital, said. "This environment is heavily impacted by the West Asia crisis, a crude oil shock, inflation, and rupee depreciation, combined with a slowing corporate earnings growth outlook driven by margin compression and expected interest rate hikes."

 

Economists hold different stances on India's balance of payments for FY27. While some expect it to turn into surplus following the latest measures by the Reserve Bank of India and the government to spur foreign inflows, others see the deficit continuing for a third straight year. "Measures to attract flows announced by RBI will likely result in a BoP surplus in FY27 (base case) and a modest deficit should oil prices hover $100/bbl," Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said Tuesday in its report.

 

Meanwhile, SBI Funds Management expects India to clock a balance of payments deficit for the third consecutive year in FY27. "With the Middle East (West Asia) hostilities widening the energy import bill, the current account deficit has widened at the margin with expected deficit likely to be above 2% of GDP in FY27," SBI Funds said in its market outlook report. 

 

Bathini of WealthMills sees the price of crude oil as the key trigger for the balance of payments. He expects it to turn into a deficit if crude oil resumes its climb to $110–$120 a barrel, the level it was at four weeks ago.

 

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 settled marginally lower at 23214.95, down over 27 points. Analysts see the Nifty 50 facing resistance at 23500-23600 points and finding support at 23100–23000 points. "Going ahead, we uphold our sideway view on Nifty (50) index as long as it remains in 23000-23500 range," Vipin Kumar, technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market, said. "An either side break from this range will start the next short term directional move in that direction."  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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