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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 9, 2026

MUMBAI – On account of a sharp surge in the prices of key raw materials like crude oil amid the escalating war in West Asia and likely deficient south-west monsoon, brokerage firm Antique Stock Broking Ltd. expects the Nifty 50 to witness an earnings downgrade in the coming quarters. It sees the Nifty 50's on-year earnings growth of 17% for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) to be aggressive and may lead to an earnings downgrade of around 4% in the upcoming quarters.

Antique's estimates for the Nifty 50's earnings per share for FY27 and FY28 were at INR 1,251 and INR 1,435, respectively. It has revised the index's March 2027 target to 27000 from 28000, based on 19 times the FY28 earnings-per-share of INR 1,435, factoring in the likely earnings downgrade in the coming quarters. In the March quarter, the brokerage downgraded the Nifty 50's earnings around 2.4% in FY27 and by 0.7% in FY28, compared with 1.0% and 0.7% during the previous quarter. The management commentaries of the Nifty 50 companies suggested a pressure on the margin and volume demand due to calibrated price hikes and macro uncertainty, the brokerage said in its strategy report Monday.

It sees India's real GDP growth softening to 6.7% on year in FY28 from 7.7% in FY26 amid multiple headwinds such as elevated energy and other commodity prices coupled with continued supply disruption, expected deficiency in the south-west monsoon, and weak global demand and elevated freight and insurance costs.

The full impact of the rise in energy and commodity prices will depend on the duration of the West Asia conflict, said the brokerage. The likely south-west monsoon deficiency is expected to weigh on agricultural activity and rural demand, while the weak global demand and higher freight and insurance costs impact merchandise exports, according to Antique. "Despite growth moderation, Indian macro fundamentals are still likely to remain resilient, positioning it among the fastest-growing large economies globally," it said.

The Reserve Bank of India announced several measures, including a concessional forex swap facility and relief on hedging costs, to help improve foreign flows. The government on Friday also exempted foreign institutional investors from paying capital gains tax on investments in government bonds. These measures are expected to help attract over $50 billion, which includes an inflow of $25 billion, provided India gets added to the Bloomberg global aggregate index, said the brokerage.

"These measures, along with INR being fundamentally under-valued (as real effective exchange rate is below the 90 level), may result in currency appreciation, support deposit growth (a positive trigger for private banks) and stabilise balance of payments," it said in the report. The brokerage also expects the foreign portfolio investment flow into India may turn favourable with low FPI ownership in India, strong Indian macroeconomic fundamentals despite disruption due to the West Asia conflict, an undervalued Indian rupee, strong corporate earnings growth expectations, coupled with a healthy return on equity profile, and the signing of an India-US trade agreement in near term.

It sees the management commentaries on the capital expenditure cycle as constructive. The Indian electrical infrastructure is likely to see robust demand with the upgrades in power grids globally, building artificial intelligence data centres by US companies, and sourcing Indian-made transformers and electrical equipment. Defence exports such as ship-building, aerospace components, and antidrone are fuelled by the ongoing global conflicts, it said in the report. "Banks are seeing an improvement in loan growth (to 15% YoY from 13% YoY in 3Q), led by corporate and SME. Vehicle finance volumes are exhibiting early signs of
a CV (commercial vehicle) upcycle."  End

US$1 = INR 95.5750

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Arundathi A R

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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