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Informist, Wednesday, May 27, 2026

By Afra Abubacker

NEW DELHI – Bharat Dynamics Ltd. is expected to post a sharp rise in net profit for the March quarter, driven by a pick-up in execution and improved operating leverage. Sequentially, brokerages expect the company's earnings to surge in triple digits from a low base.

The ammunition and missile systems manufacturer's standalone net profit for Jan-Mar is expected to rise over 29% on year to INR 3.52 billion, according to an average of estimates from five brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 4.71 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest is INR 2.93 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd.

The company's revenue for the quarter is expected to rise 12% on year to INR 19.91 billion, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 24.06 billion from Nuvama and the lowest is INR 16.21 billion from ICICI Securities.

Brokerages have diverging estimates for the revenue as they differ on the company's order execution pace. While Nuvama expects the top line to rise 35% on year, ICICI Securities expects the revenue to decline 9% on year due to delays in missile approvals.

However, on a sequential basis, the top line and bottom line are expected to surge over 250% and 355%, respectively, according to the average of estimates. The December quarter had a low base due to negligible deliveries, ICICI Securities said.

Nuvama is optimistic about the company's performance over the medium term and said the robust order backlog of INR 228 billion at the end of FY25 offers strong order visibility. "It is well-positioned to deliver a revenue CAGR of 35% over FY25-(FY)28," it said. However, it cautioned that the pace of execution remains volatile due to supply chain disruptions.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be at INR 4.00 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of estimates. Nuvama has once again projected the highest estimate for EBITDA at INR 5.31 billion, while Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. has the lowest at INR 3.12 billion.

For FY26, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects the net profit of Bharat Dynamics to rise over 16% to INR 6.40 billion and revenue to rise 11% to INR 37.07 billion. The brokerage expects revenue for the March quarter to fall 2% on year, owing to the company's dependence on vendors and imports.

Bharat Dynamics is set to announce its earnings Thursday. Analysts will focus on the management's commentary on large-ticket orders such as the Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile, or QRSAM, next-generation corvettes, P75I submarines, and Pinaka guided missiles. Progress on the new manufacturing facilities expected to be commissioned by FY27 will also be a point of keen interest.

Of the six brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, three have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,827, up nearly 43% from the current market price. Wednesday, the company's shares closed at INR 1,282.20 on the National Stock Exchange, down nearly 4% from Tuesday. Since the company released its December quarter earnings, its shares have fallen over 8%.

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Bharat Dynamics from five brokerages in descending order of the net profit estimates:

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Edited by Rajeev Pai

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