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Informist, Tuesday, May 26, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Iron ore major NMDC Ltd. is projected to report a robust growth in its key financial metrics for the March quarter on a yearly basis primarily because of a sharp rise in its sales volumes, according to analysts. The state-owned company's profitability is expected to be slightly affected by minor price hikes taken during the quarter.

NMDC is expected to post a standalone net profit of INR 21.52 billion for the March quarter, up nearly 44% on year, according to an average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The company's revenues from operations are likely to rise around 32% on year to INR 91.47 billion for the reporting quarter, according to the average of estimates. Sequentially, NMDC's bottom line is projected to rise around 24% and top line is likely to rise over 22%.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 24.62 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd. while the lowest estimate is INR 18.93 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. However, Nuvama has the highest estimate for the company's top line at INR 97.76 billion while YES Securities (India) Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 83.68 billion.

NMDC sold 15.3 million tonnes iron ore in the March quarter, up nearly 21% on year. The company's iron ore production during the quarter rose around 23% on year to nearly 16.3 million tonnes.

"NMDC is expected to report a strong operational performance, led by a sharp pickup in volumes," YES Securities said in a report. "Earnings growth (to be) largely volume-led," it added. In addition, the March quarter is a seasonally strong quarter for the company as iron ore dispatches peak during this period, according to ICICI Securities.

NMDC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen rising nearly 6% on year and 7% sequentially to INR 26.81 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of the estimates. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA is INR 30.97 billion from ICICI Securities while the lowest is INR 23.48 billion from Nuvama.

The iron ore major had sharply cut prices of lumps and ores in January before raising them slightly in February and March. NMDC had lowered prices of iron ore lump by INR 1,000 in January and INR 850 for iron ore fines. In February, the company then raised prices of both by INR 100, followed by an INR 100 rise for lumps in March and INR 50 for fines.

Nuvama said NMDC is likely to clock a 15% on-year increase in EBITDA due to higher sales volume but sees this partially offset by a fall in realisations. Brokerages were divided on the company's EBITDA per tonne for the reporting quarter as some expect realisations to improve while others see a fall.

Kotak Securities expects the company's EBITDA per tonne to rise around 12% on year and over 7% on quarter to INR 1,852 per tonne "on the back of better realisations during the quarter." Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher expects this to rise by INR 35 sequentially to INR 1,723 per tonne.

However, Equirus Securities sees EBITDA per tonne falling over 2% sequentially but rising by the same quantum on year to INR 1,653 per tonne. Motilal Oswal and YES Securities see EBITDA per tonne broadly flat on quarter.

JM Financial projects NMDC's blended realisations to increase INR 100 per tonne sequentially due to the price hikes undertaken during the quarter. Kotak also expects blended iron ore realisations to increase by nearly 10% on year and over 2% on quarter due to the price hikes.

However, Nuvama sees realisations falling by 7% on year to INR 4,685 per tonne and Prabhudas Lilladher expects it to fall 6% on year and 1% sequentially to INR 4,695 per tonne as "NMDC has taken very minor price hikes."

For 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), Motilal Oswal expects NMDC to post a net profit of INR 75.40 billion on revenues of INR 296.30 billion. Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher sees the company's net profit for FY26 at INR 72.90 billion and revenue at INR 301.40 billion. Its EBITDA is seen between INR 92.60 billion and INR 94.90 billion.

Investors will monitor the company's guidance on volume and capital expenditure for FY27. They will also look for any comments around the environmental clearance limits for NMDC's Karnataka mines, according to analysts.

Of the 10 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock. Four brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock and one has a ‘sell' recommendation.

The company will detail its March quarter results Friday. Tuesday, shares of NMDC closed 0.5% higher at INR 90.67 on the National Stock Exchange. It had reported a net profit of INR 17.38 billion for the December quarter on revenues of INR 74.86 billion. Since then, shares of the company have risen 11%.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for NMDC from 10 brokerages in descending order of net profit estimate in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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