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Informist, Friday, May. 22, 2026

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD – NTPC Ltd. is expected to report a relatively modest year-on-year rise in net profit and revenue for the March quarter, owing to low capacity addition, lower plant load factor, and relatively weaker power demand, according to analysts.

NTPC is projected to report a net profit of nearly INR 59 billion for the reporting quarter, up nearly 2% on year, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The lowest forecast for the electricity generating company's bottom line is over INR 51 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. and the highest is over INR 73 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

For the March quarter, NTPC is projected to report a top line of over INR 470 billion, up over 7% on year, according to the average of estimates. The projections range from over INR 522 billion by Elara to nearly INR 441 billion by Kotak Securities.  

"We expect PAT to grow at 7% YoY owing to limited commissioning over the last 12-15 months, PLF (plant load factor) to be at 77% YoY in the standalone business in Q4FY26 (Jan-Mar) with weak power demand during the quarter further exacerbating issues," Nuvama said in a note. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects NTPC's revenue to improve 9% on year and 18% from the trailing quarter, amid "some" revival in power demand and "limited new capacity additions".

The data released by the Central Electricity Authority showed that electricity generation in India for Jan-Mar was about 382 billion kilowatt-hour, up about 1.7% from nearly 376 billion kilowatt-hours in Jan-Mar 2025.

Analysts also expect NTPC's profitability to be somewhat insulated from changes in power demand, as it operates under a regulatory mechanism that ensures its returns are largely assured. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission determines tariffs to be paid to NTPC when the company signs long-term power purchase agreements which insulate the company from short-term fluctuations in demand. This provides the company with long-term earnings and cash flow visibility.

NTPC is India's biggest power producer. The company supplies around one-fourth of India's total power demand and has roughly 17% of India's installed capacity. With an installed capacity of around 88 gigawatts, NTPC is targeting 60 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2032. NTPC generates and sells electricity from thermal, solar, hydroelectric, and wind energy sources.

NTPC's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation are estimated at nearly INR 133 billion, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. Estimates for EBITDA range from over INR 120 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. to INR 152 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

For the December quarter, NTPC had reported net profit of nearly INR 50 billion, on revenue of over INR 406 billion. Its shares have risen over 9% since the company disclosed its December quarter earnings. NTPC is set to detail March quarter and FY26 earnings on Saturday.

At 1309 IST, NTPC's shares traded at INR 389.20 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.1%.

Of the seven brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, six have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 422. This is nearly 9% higher than current stock price of the company. The remaining one has a 'hold' call on the stock with a target price of INR 370.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for NTPC from six broking firms in descending order of estimates of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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