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Informist, Tuesday, May 19, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd.'s net profit for the March quarter is expected to fall as revenue growth moderates. A high base, weak demand, and shortage of liquefied petroleum gas are the factors likely to affect the earnings of the company for the period, according to analysts.

 

Jubilant FoodWorks is expected to post a standalone net profit of INR 467.50 million for the March quarter, down over 5% on year and nearly 47% sequentially, according to an average of estimates from eight brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 700 million from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. The lowest is INR 180 million from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

The company's standalone revenue for the quarter is expected to be INR 18.13 billion, a growth of over 14% on year and nearly 1% on quarter, as per the average of estimates. The highest estimate for the top line is INR 25.06 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The lowest view on sales is INR 16.86 billion, offered by as many as three brokerages--Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., and Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

 

Jubilant FoodWorks is a food service company that operates fast food franchises such as Domino's India, Popeyes, Dunkin, Coffy, and Hong's Kitchen. The company conducts its operations in India, Turkey, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, but it derives the biggest chunk of its revenue from the India business.

 

The company's revenue growth is expected to moderate to 11% on year for the March quarter owing to the high base, Motilal Oswal said. The like-for-like growth of the company was just 0.2% for the March quarter, the company said in April. Like-for-like is a metric that measures revenue growth from existing stores that have been operating for more than a year.

 

Brokerages have estimated that like-for-like growth would moderate in the reporting quarter because of weak demand trends and the impact of liquefied petroleum gas shortage on the company's operations. In the December quarter, the company's like-for-like growth was 5%. Prabhudas Lilladher had earlier estimated that like-for-like revenue was set to grow marginally as the availability of pizzas was affected by the LPG shortage during the ICC Men's T20 World Cup in March when demand usually rises.

 

During the March quarter, Jubilant FoodWorks added 59 new Domino's Pizza stores, taking the total count to 2,455, the company said. Store additions are expected to have helped the company's revenue grow, Nirmal Bang said.

 

The gross margin of Jubilant FoodWorks is expected to rise on account of stable raw material cost and the benefit from goods and services tax cuts on inputs implemented in September. The gross margin is estimated to grow over 20 basis points on year to 75.1%, Kotak Securities Ltd. said. This is mainly because of stable raw materials costs, the brokerage added. It expects the company to have benefited from GST cuts, especially on cheese.

 

The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of Jubilant FoodWorks for the March quarter is pegged at INR 3.42 billion, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for the metric is INR 4.57 billion from Emkay Global and the lowest is INR 2.82 billion from Equirus Securities.

 

Kotak Securities expects the company's EBITDA to rise 13% on year to INR 2.10 billion, on a pre-Indian Accounting Standard basis. As per the old accounting rules, expenses on rent were included in operating spends in the profit and loss account, which would deflate the EBITDA.

 

The EBITDA margin of Jubilant FoodWorks is seen improving by 55 bps on year to INR 12.3%, aided by gross margin expansion, according to Kotak Securities. Motilal Oswal expects the margin under the pre-Indian Accounting Standard to improve by as much as 70 bps to 12.5% led by gross margin growth and operating leverage.

 

The company will detail its March quarter earnings on Wednesday. Tuesday, its shares ended at INR 473 on the National Stock Exchange, up nearly 4% from Monday. The stock has shed nearly 14% since the company announced its December quarter earnings on Feb. 10.

 

Of the nine brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a "buy" call on the stock with an average target price of INR 730, up over 54% from the current market price. The other two brokerages say "hold".

 

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates, in INR million, for Jubilant FoodWorks from eight brokerage firms in descending order of the net profit estimate:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	17,600	700	3,600
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	25,058	689	4,571
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	17,649	634	3,517
Kotak Securities Ltd.	17,203	565	3,379
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	16,860	480	3,305
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	16,860	252	3,149
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	16,860	240	2,998
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	16,954	180	2,820
Average	18,130.50	467.5	3,417.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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