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Informist, Monday, May 18, 2026

 

--World sugar body: See 2.2 mln tn surplus 2025-26 vs 3.2 mln deficit yr ago

--CONTEXT: International Sugar Organization's 3rd revised 2025-26 output view

--World sugar body:See 2025-26 record output 182.0 mln tn vs 175.9 mln yr ago

--World sugar body: See 2025-26 demand 179.8 mln tn vs 179.1 mln tn yr ago

--World sugar body: See 2025-26 imports 63.3 mln tn vs 65.1 mln tn yr ago

--World sugar body: See 2025-26 export availability 64.2 mln tn vs 64.8 mln 

--World sugar body: See 2025-26 end stocks 79.4 mln tn vs 78.9 mln tn yr ago

--World sugar body: See 262,000 tn sugar deficit in 2026-27 on El Nino risk

 

NEW DELHI – The International Sugar Organization has revised up its global sugar surplus view to 2.2 million tonnes in 2025-26 (Oct-Sept), as it expects a record sugar output in the year, according to its third quarterly market outlook. The latest projection is 1 million tonnes higher than the February projection. Last year, the world is estimated to have faced a sugar deficit of 3.2 million tonnes. 

 

"For 2024-25, reconciliation and member-validation of our statistics narrow the global deficit to 3.196 mln tonnes, down from 3.464 mln tonnes previously," the body said. 

 

Meanwhile, global sugar production is estimated to increase by 3.5% from last year, reaching a record 182.0 million tonnes in 2025-26. The optimistic outlook on output comes amid increased sugar production in Pakistan, Thailand, and India. "Although India's gain is smaller than previously expected," the body said. 

 

The sugar body has revised down its global sugar demand projection to 179.8 million tonnes, 450,000 tonnes lower than the February projection. However, it remains 0.4% higher than 179.1 million tonnes last year. 

 

In 2025-26, the world's import demand for sugar is expected to fall nearly 3% on year to 63.3 million tonnes, while export availability is seen 1% lower at 64.2 million tonnes. This results in a 900,000 tonnes of trade surplus, which is "modest relative to the production or consumption surplus and compared to the export volume that is yet to be realised over the remainder of the season," the body said.

 

The ending stock for 2025-26 is estimated to rise 0.6% on year to 79.4 million tonnes, and the ending stocks-consumption ratio is estimated to be higher at 44.15% from 44.06% last year. 

 

For the upcoming 2026-27 sugar season, the body has forecast a deficit of 262,000 tonnes. "Our first overview of the 2026/27 season shows a deficit of 0.262 mln tonnes, with production projected to fall by around 2 mln tonnes, while noting increasing El Nio risk," it said.

 

ETHANOL 

Global ethanol production is forecast to reach 129.4 billion litres in 2026, up from the estimated 123.1 billion litres in 2025. Ethanol production is expected to rise due to a rebound in Brazilian output and continued expansion in India. 

 

Meanwhile, ethanol demand is projected to reach 126.9 billion litres in 2026, up from the estimated 122.9 billion litres in 2025. "Soaring oil prices in the wake of the Persian Gulf conflict have driven renewed demand for biofuels globally: several countries have introduced or expanded blending programmes since hostilities began," the body said. 

 

"The mature markets of Brazil, India, and the EU are actively examining the next step up in blends, towards E32, E25, and E20, respectively," it added. 

 

The following table details the International Sugar Organization's projections for 2025-26 (Oct-Sep) in million tonnes, compared with last year, and the percentage change: 

 

	2025-26	2024-25	% change
Production	182.00	175.87	3.5
Consumption	179.76	179.07	0.4
Surplus/deficit	2.24	-3.19
Import demand	63.33	65.14	-2.8
Export availability	64.23	64.81	-0.9
End stocks	79.36	78.89	0.6

 

End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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