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Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

 

By Ruchira Kagita

 

MUMBAI - NHPC Ltd. is expected to report a sharp fall on year in its bottom line for the quarter ended March while its revenue increases moderately. Only 80% of the proposed tariff being recognised for its Parbati hydroelectric project is one of the main factors dragging the company's profit down.

 

The power producer's net profit may be anywhere between INR 2.19 billion and INR 8.10 billion for the three months ended March, according to estimates from three broking firms. JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. sees the company's profit falling by a significant 75% on year.

 

NHPC may report a revenue in the range of INR 17.9 billion and INR 22.60 billion for the reporting quarter. JM Financial again has the lowest estimate for the company's sales as it has baked in a roughly 13% on-year fall in the growth metric. Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and Kotak Securities Ltd. expect the company's revenue to climb around 9-10% on year.

 

For hydroelectric power players NHPC and SJVN Ltd., power generation is expected to remain subdued, JM Financial said. The company's power generation in the March quarter may have been muted with realisations around INR 6 per unit, against INR 7.6 per unit in the corresponding period a year ago, the brokerage said in a report.

 

While power generation could improve 23% on year to 2.8 billion units, profit is seen to be weak because of partial revenue recognition and complete realisation of expenses for two of the company's key projects, Kotak Securities said in its research report.

 

NHPC had estimated its capital expenditure for the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) at INR 133 billion, and for FY27 at INR 150 billion. From FY28, the management sees capital expenditure at INR 120 billion-INR 130 billion.

 

Commentary on the Subansiri Lower hydroelectric project in Arunachal Pradesh will be among the key points to watch out for, according to analysts. The management had said in a call with analysts that the company will add 2,744 megawatts from hydroelectric power in FY27. Updates from the company on projects in the pipeline will be awaited.

 

For the December quarter, NHPC had reported a revenue of INR 18.77 billion and a profit of INR 2.93 billion. Since then its stock has been largely steady. Thursday, its shares closed at INR 78.45 on the National Stock Exchange, up slightly from Wednesday. Of the three brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, two have a "buy" call on the stock with target prices of INR 84 and INR 97 while one has a "sell" recommendation.

 

Following are the estimates for NHPC's earnings for the March quarter from three brokerages in INR billion in descending order of net profit:

 

Broking Firm	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	22.60	8.10	3.10
Kotak Securities Ltd.	22.47	4.93	8.52
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	17.90	2.19	9.77

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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