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Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI - NCC Ltd.'s bottom line for the quarter ended Mar. 31 is expected to fall on year for the fourth successive quarter as a slowdown in execution and the impact of the war in West Asia are expected to more than offset the company's strong order inflows, according to analysts. The company is also likely to post largely flattish growth in the top line, they said.

 

NCC's standalone net profit for the March quarter is likely to fall over 22% on year to INR 1.97 billion, according to an average of estimates from six brokerages. Its revenue is expected to fall nearly 2% on year to INR 52.76 billion, according to the average of estimates.

 

Order inflows for diversified companies such as NCC were strong in the March quarter. However, weak execution amid supply disruptions caused by the war in West Asia are likely to have hit the company's performance. While NCC has historically maintained minimal direct presence in West Asia compared to other companies in the sector, the escalation of the conflict significantly hit domestic execution through the raw material channel and logistics disruptions.

 

"NCC is expected to report a 4% on-year decline in revenues in Q4FY26, despite a robust order book, primarily due to slower ramp-up in execution of newly awarded projects (notably INR 193 billion in Q4FY25 and INR 280 billion in FY26), along with delays in payment collections for select projects," SMIFS Ltd. said in a report.

 

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 2.20 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 1.80 billion from SMIFS. The highest estimate for the company's revenue is INR 54.05 billion from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. and the lowest is INR 51.43 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

 

From the trailing quarter, the company's net profit is likely to rise more than 71%, and revenue is seen rising nearly 31%. On a consolidated basis, NCC had reported a net profit of INR 1.15 billion for the December quarter on a revenue of INR 40.43 billion. For the March quarter a year ago, it had reported a net profit of INR 2.53 billion on a revenue of INR 53.76 billion.

 

NCC is expected to report a fall of nearly 9% in its consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation to INR 4.51 billion, according to an average of five estimates. The company's EBITDA was INR 4.95 billion in the year-ago quarter.

 

The company's EBITDA margin is expected to moderate because of the rise in input costs, according to JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. A relatively weaker execution mix is also expected to soften NCC Ltd.'s margin, according to SMIFS.

 

The management's commentary on the progress of execution of large projects, conversion of L1, or lowest bidder, positions into firm orders, outlook on revenue and margins, and updates on receivables under the Jal Jeevan Mission scheme will be monitored, SMIFS said in a report.

 

The company will announce its March quarter earnings Friday. Thursday, its shares closed nearly 2% higher from Wednesday at INR 162.58 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up nearly 4% since the company reported its December-quarter results.

 

Of the 10 research reports on NCC available with Informist, eight have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 206, implying an upside of nearly 27% from the current level. One has a "hold" recommendation and one says "sell".

 

NCC Ltd. is a construction and infrastructure development company involved in a wide range of activities, including buildings, transportation, water and environment, electrical transmission and distribution, irrigation, mining, and railways projects.

 

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates for NCC, in INR billion, from six brokerages in descending order of the net profit estimate:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	53.80	2.20	4.80
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	53.29	2.03	4.54
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	54.05	1.95	--
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	51.43	1.94	4.33
HDFC Securities Ltd.	52.40	1.90	4.50
SMIFS Ltd.	51.61	1.80	4.38
Average	52.76	1.97	4.51

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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