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Informist, Monday, May 11, 2026

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI – Telecommunications major Vodafone Idea Ltd. is expected to report a narrower loss for the March quarter, aided by higher average revenue per user and lower finance costs after the government froze the company's adjusted gross revenue dues in December, analysts said. The company's sequential revenue growth is expected to remain in the low single digits, in line with the past two quarters. 

The company's consolidated net loss for the reporting quarter is expected to be INR 53.42 billion, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. This compares with an adjusted net loss of INR 63.64 billion in the December quarter and a net loss of INR 71.66 billion in the year-ago quarter. The December quarter figure included a one-time income of INR 10.78 billion.

The debt-laden company's consolidated revenue for the March quarter is expected to rise by around 2% sequentially to INR 115.28 billion, according to the average of estimates. On a year-on-year basis, revenue is expected to grow around 5%. 

Estimates for the company's net loss for the quarter range from INR 34.25 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. to INR 69.24 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. The highest revenue estimate is INR 132.81 billion from B&K Securities, while the lowest is INR 110.91 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. 

Most brokerages, except for JM Financial and Kotak Securities, expect the company's ARPU for the reporting quarter to improve sequentially, led by growth in fourth-generation subscribers. JM Financial expects ARPU to decline 1.2% sequentially to INR 170 in the reporting quarter, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects the metric to improve 1.2% sequentially to INR 174. Vodafone Idea had reported an ARPU of INR 172 in the December quarter. 

The company's consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation for the reporting quarter are expected to fall 0.5% sequentially but rise around 3% on year to INR 47.92 billion, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. has the highest EBITDA estimate for the quarter at INR 49.22 billion, while Nuvama has the lowest estimate at INR 46.83 billion. 

Centrum Broking and Motilal Oswal expect the company's EBITDA margin for the reporting quarter to improve to 42.6%-43.0% from 42.5% in the previous quarter. Nuvama, on the other hand, expects the company's EBITDA margin to contract by 80 basis points sequentially. 

Vodafone Idea added a net 124,826 mobile users in February and March after reporting subscriber losses for nearly five consecutive years. However, on a quarterly basis, the company reported a net loss of 286,511 users in Jan-Mar, according to data compiled from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. This was still better than the loss of 3.80 million subscribers in the December quarter. 

For the financial year ended Mar. 31, the company is expected to narrow its consolidated net loss significantly to INR 81.00 billion from INR 273.84 billion in the previous year, according to JM Financial. Its revenue for the full year is expected to rise over 2% to INR 446.00 billion, the brokerage said. 

Thursday, the company's shares were up 1.1% at INR 12.97 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has risen over 30% since the company announced its December quarter earnings. The stock is down around 90% from its all-time high of INR 123.22 hit in April 2015. The company will announce its March quarter earnings on Saturday. 

Of the six research reports on the company available with Informist, three have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation, with target prices of INR 11–INR 12. The remaining three have a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation, with target prices of INR 10–INR 11. 

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Vodafone Idea from eight brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net loss in INR billion: 

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Edited by Saji George Titus

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