More Stories

Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD –  Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. is expected to report a sharp rise in its revenue for the March quarter on the back of strong inventory gains following the sudden rise in crude oil prices after the start of the West Asia war. At the same time, its net profit is expected to fall substantially due to subdued sales and refining margins, according to estimates compiled by Informist from 10 brokerages.

The state-owned oil marketing company's net profit for the March quarter is estimated to fall nearly 14% on year to over INR 43 billion. In the March quarter last year, the company saw a drop in net profit on account of a 52% decline in the company's average gross refining margin to $6.82 per barrel. Its net profit was also hit by a one-time expense of INR 17.74 billion due to impairment loss on investment in its subsidiary Bharat PetroResources Ltd. It had reported a similar expense of nearly INR 18 billion in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Apr-Mar) owing to impairment loss in the same subsidiary.

Revenue for the reporting quarter is seen jumping nearly 23% on year to INR 1.36 trillion, led primarily by high inventory gains. From the trailing quarter, BPCL's net profit is expected fall nearly 43% and revenue rise nearly 15%.

The highest net profit estimate of over INR 76 billion is from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is around INR 17 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd. The revenue estimates range from INR 1.13 trillion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to INR 1.55 trillion by ICICI Securities Ltd., which sees company's fuel marketing margins falling over one-third in the quarter.

In the December quarter, BPCL had posted the net profit of over INR 75 billion on revenues of INR 1.19 trillion. A majority of the brokerages polled see BPCL's crude refining throughput at 10.5 million tonnes, down about 1% on year from 10.6 million tonnes. The company's sales volume is expected at around 14.3 million tonnes, up about 4% on year from 13.7 million tonnes.

REFINING MARGINS

BPCL has a total refining capacity of 35.3 million tonnes per annum at its refineries in Mumbai, Kochi, and Bina in Madhya Pradesh. BPCL accounts for about 14% of the country's total refining capacity. BPCL's earnings in the March quarter are expected to be led by the refining segment, boosted by firm middle distillate cracks. Brokerages expect BPCL's gross refining margins to rise above the year-ago levels, supported by an inventory gain owing to sudden spike in price of crude oil globally due to the West Asia war. For the March quarter, the brokerages see BPCL's gross refining margins at around $18.4 per barrel, including inventory gain of nearly $5 per barrel. The GRM compares with $9.2 per barrel a year ago and $13.3 per barrel in the December quarter.

The gross refining margin is the difference between the cost of crude oil and the value of refined products. It is a key indicator for pricing, profitability, and financial health of refineries globally. The benchmark Singapore GRM for the March quarter averaged $8.2 per barrel, compared with $7.5 per barrel in the December quarter. The Singapore GRM serves as the primary benchmark for refineries in Asia, and is considered to be a key indicator for refineries globally.

The expected rise in product cracks--the difference between the price of a barrel of crude oil and that of a refined product--also helps boost GRMs. As per the available data, crude oil prices for Indian refiners in the March quarter averaged near $95 per barrel, up 28% from last year's average of nearly $74 per barrel. Motilal Oswal lists benchmark gasoline cracks for the March quarter 32% higher on year at $11.2 per barrel and those for diesel are up 134% on year at $32.7 per barrel.

MARKETING MARGINS

The company's marketing segment is unlikely to be able to provide any support to earnings, with petrol and diesel margins remaining under pressure due to spike in crude prices following the West Asia war. Analysts expect domestic fuel sales volumes to fall modestly on year and on quarter. Motilal Oswal sees BPCL's gross marketing margin for the March quarter at INR 1.3 per litre and J.M. Financial sees it INR 1.7 per litre, down from INR 5 per litre in the December quarter.

BPCL serves nearly 100 million liquefied petroleum gas customers. The government mandated the state-owned oil marketing companies to supply LPG cylinders to a section of domestic customers at a regulated, below-cost prices despite international prices being high. These companies bore the losses from these under-recoveries for a long period.

BPCL said its under-recovery on LPG was nearly INR 105 billion in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar). The under-recovery was estimated at INR 220 per cylinder in January 2025 and was estimated to be down to INR 25-INR 30 per cylinder in December 2025. On Aug. 8, the government announced a compensation of INR 300 billion to be paid to oil marketing companies in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) as compensation for the under-recoveries. As per published data, BPCL's share in this was of nearly INR 80 billion, which was being disbursed in monthly instalments of little over INR 12 billion a month from November. This is also expected to support the company's net profit and revenue. Motilal Oswal sees LPG under-recovery averaging INR 80 per cylinder in the March quarter, while current LPG under recovery is INR 380 per cylinder.

BPCL's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected at nearly INR 76 billion, with an estimate of INR 119 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. at the highest end and little over INR 38 billion by ICICI Securities at the lower end. The higher estimates factor in stronger gross refining margins and stable fuel marketing margins.

Analysts will watch out for updates from BPCL management on the company's expansion projects, particularly the construction timeline for the proposed 9-million-tonne Andhra green field refinery. Analysts will also watch for progress on the INR-600-billion petrochemicals complex planned alongside the Andhra refinery and will want to know whether the project remains on track to become operational in 2027-28 (Apr–Mar). They would also seek updates on the expansion of the 7.8 million tonnes per annum Bina refinery in Madhya Pradesh, which the company is expanding to 12 million tonnes per annum capacity.

The company will announce its March quarter and FY26 earnings on Tuesday. Its shares have fallen nearly 16% since it released its December quarter earnings on Jan. 23. At 1049 IST, the stock was down 1.2% at INR 293.60 on the National Stock Exchange.

Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, eight have 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 431 per share. This is nearly 39% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a 'sell' recommendation, while one has a 'hold' call on the stock at an average target price of INR 395. 

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

US$1 = INR 95.88

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.