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Informist, Wednesday, May 13, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Steel Authority of India Ltd. is expected to report a good earnings performance for its March quarter due to growth in sales volumes and better realisations on higher steel prices, according to analysts.

SAIL is expected to post a standalone net profit of INR 16.45 billion for the March quarter, up over 36% on year, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 21.55 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. and the lowest is INR 11.14 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

The steel behemoth's revenues are likely to rise a shade over 6% on year to INR 311.22 billion for the March quarter. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a high of INR 318.72 billion from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. to a low of INR 297.84 billion from JM Financial. If the results are in line with projections, this will be the sixth straight quarter of growth in the company's revenue. Sequentially, SAIL's bottom line is expected to rise nearly four times, while its top line is seen growing a mere 14%.

The company's sales volumes are likely to rise 1-4% on year and 6-8% sequentially in the March quarter, brokerages said. "SAIL is likely to report a strong quarter led by higher volumes and improved realisations across both flat and long steel products," YES Securities said in a report.

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. expects the steel major's sales volumes to rise around 6% on quarter and nearly 2% on year to 5.4 million tonnes for the reporting quarter. Similarly, Nuvama expects sales volumes at 5.53 million tonnes, up 7% on quarter.

While the company's profitability is expected to get a boost from a rise in volumes and higher realisations, an increase in prices of coking coal during the quarter is likely to partially offset this growth. Coking coal is a key raw material in the manufacturing of steel as it helps to convert iron ore into iron.

SAIL's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter are pegged at INR 39.74 billion, up 5% on year and 51% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Emkay has the highest estimate for the company's EBITDA at INR 46.28 billion, while JM Financial has the lowest at INR 33.30 billion.

Equirus Securities expects steel realisations to improve 11% on quarter to INR 59,023 per tonne, supported by a sharp increase in prices of hot-rolled SAIL's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter are pegged at INR 39.74 billion, up 5% on year and 51% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Emkay has the highest estimate for the company's EBITDA at INR 46.28 billion, while JM Financial has the lowest at INR 33.30 billion.

Equirus Securities expects steel realisations to improve 11% on quarter to INR 59,023 per tonne, supported by a sharp increase in prices of hot-rolled coil and steel rebars. SAIL's higher proportion of long steels is also expected to boost realisations during the quarter.

Both domestic hot-rolled coils or flat steel and rebar or long steel prices rose around 11% on year and 8% on year, respectively, in the March quarter, supported by robust "infrastructure-led" demand, HDFC Securities said.

In the post-earnings conference call in February, the company had said it expects a major boost to its profitability once the expansion at the IISCO Steel Plant in Burnpur, West Bengal, is completed. "They're going to finish in three years' time. That is the timeline. And we believe after we get that, then the production volume, the margin, which will come from there, will really bolster our profitability to a greater extent," the management had said.

Brokerages said investors will closely track the management's comments on upcoming capital expenditure plans and volume guidance for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). They will also monitor the status of expansion plans and timelines for commissioning.

The company will detail its March quarter results on Friday. Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock. Four brokerages have a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation on the stock while two have a 'sell' or equivalent recommendation.

On Wednesday, shares of SAIL closed over 14% higher at INR 201.31 on the National Stock Exchange. The company had reported a net profit of INR 4.42 billion for the December quarter on revenue of INR 273.71 billion. Since then, shares of the company have risen over 33%.

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates for SAIL from 13 brokerages in descending order by estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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