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Informist, Wednesday, May 13, 2026

By Avishek Rakshit

KOLKATA – A projected decline in sales volume in key regions including Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh in the March quarter is expected to adversely affect the profit of alcoholic beverages maker United Spirits Ltd. While the revenue may increase owing to higher sales of premium products, the pressure on overall sales volume is expected to keep profits muted. 

United Spirits, the Indian division of the world's fourth largest alcoholic beverage company by market capitalisation Diageo Plc., is expected to report around 4% on-year fall in its net profit for the March quarter to INR 4.33 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. However, the company's revenue is expected to increase around 5% on year to INR 30.91 billion, according to the average of estimates. 

On a sequential basis, the net profit is likely to fall around 20% and the revenue is expected to fall over 16%. The alcoholic beverages company, which sells signature Scotch whisky brands such as Johnnie Walker, Black Dog, Black & White, VAT 69, and Antiquity, will announce its results for the March quarter on Thursday.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 5.11 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest estimate of INR 3.54 billion is from Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. The highest estimate for revenue is by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. at INR 31.94 billion and the lowest is by brokerage Nirmal Bang at INR 29.95 billion.

Brokerages such as Nuvama and Motilal Oswal said that United Spirits faces a high base effect in Andhra Pradesh which ranks second in the country after neighbouring Telengana in terms of annual per capita spends on liquor consumption at INR 1,306 during 2022-23 (Apr-Mar). After the Andhra Pradesh government granted new licences under the new liquor policy in the last financial year, sales had surged and such pent-up sales created a high base. 

In Maharashtra, under the new liquor policy, United Spirits, like its peers faced pricing pressures leading to a decline in sales volume. Brokerage Motilal Oswal said that in Maharashtra, which was giving monetary benefits to state-made liquors, the impact on declining sales of Indian Made Foreign Liquor is more pronounced in the March quarter. 

Both Nuvama and Motilal Oswal estimate that sales volume of the prestige and above segment, which accounts for over 74% of United Spirits' sales, is expected to see a 1% volume decline in the March quarter although the value growth from this segment is expected to be 6-10% on year which will aid the March quarter revenues. This segment comprises premium and luxury products. 

In the popular products' segment, which largely comprises budget brands and products, brokerage Motilal Oswal has factored in a 13% on-year decline in both volume and value.

United Spirits' overall volumes are anticipated to inch down 4% on year reflecting structural shift away from popular segment products and ongoing state-level disruptions, brokerages said. 

United Spirits is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 5.51 billion in the March quarter, according to the average of nine estimates. Brokerage Motilal Oswal' estimate for EBITDA is the highest at INR 6.03 billion and brokerage Nirmal Bang' estimate of INR 4.95 billion is the lowest.

Nuvama said United Spirits' gross margins are likely to decline 277 basis points on year to 47.5% while EBITDA margins are likely to expand 97 basis points on year to 18.1% with higher spends on advertising and promotions.

Motilal Oswal, however, has a different view and estimates that the company's gross margins in the March quarter to expand 190 basis points aided by better product mix and stable input cost pressures. The EBITDA margin is expected to inch up 180 basis points on year to 18.9%, brokerage Motilal Oswal said. 

At 1407 IST, shares of United Spirits traded around 1% up at INR 1,257.80 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are down around 5% since the company announced its December quarter earnings in January.

Of the 11 research reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 1,552. One brokerage has a ‘sell' recommendation on the scrip. 

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for United Spirits India from 11 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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