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Informist, Tuesday, May 12, 2026

By Shruti Nair

MUMBAI – Oil India Ltd. is expected to report a notable year-on-year decline in its Jan-Mar bottom line for the sixth consecutive quarter. Sequentially, however, the oil explorer's net profit is seen growing robustly on the back of stronger crude oil realisations in the quarter, according to brokerages tracking the company. The company's revenue for the quarter is expected to rise modestly both on year and sequentially despite a dip in volumes.

The upstream oil company's net profit for the quarter is expected to fall nearly 20% on year to INR 12.77 billion, according to an average of estimates from 10 brokerages. According to two analysts, a sharp increase in Oil India's dry well write-offs will drag down its year-on-year net profit growth. An analyst at JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. said the brokerage has factored in a dry well write-off of INR 7 billion for the March quarter, up nearly five times from INR 1.5 billion for the year-ago quarter and 40% from INR 5 billion for the December quarter.

Sequentially, however, a net profit of INR 12.77 billion would mean a rise of 58%. The highest estimate for Oil India's net profit for the March quarter is INR 16.50 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., which has factored in higher oil realisations due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices in March. The lowest estimate is INR 8.18 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

The company's revenue for the quarter is expected to rise over 8% on year to INR 59.84 billion. Again, Prabhudas Lilladher has the highest estimate for revenue at INR 63 billion. The lowest estimate is INR 55.61 billion from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. Sequentially, the oil explorer's revenue for the quarter is expected to grow nearly 22%.

Most brokerages see the crude oil producer benefiting from higher realisations in the reporting quarter. Supply disruptions arising from the crisis in West Asia have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices during the final month of the March quarter. Brent crude oil averaged $82 per barrel in the March quarter, a 29% jump from $63.7 per barrel in the December quarter. Higher crude oil prices bode well for the revenues of Oil India and its upstream peers. However, Prabhudas Lilladher expressed concern over the possibility of windfall taxes on oil explorers as crude oil prices remain over the mark of $100 per barrel.

On the volume front, Nomura Equity Research expects the company's crude oil output for the quarter at 0.829 million metric tonnes, up 2% sequentially. In the December quarter, the crude oil segment accounted for over 66% of Oil India's standalone revenue and over 65% of its profit before interest and tax, according to the company's December quarter results.

Most brokerages see the Maharatna company's gas volumes for the March quarter declining sequentially. Oil India's gas volumes for the quarter are pegged at 0.623 billion cubic metres, down 6% on quarter, according to Nomura. The gas segment accounted for 29% of the company's standalone revenue and 33% of profit before interest and tax in the December quarter.

Oil India's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter are expected at INR 20.64 billion, according to an average of estimates from nine brokerages. The EBITDA estimates range from a low of INR 14.46 billion from Emkay Global to a high of INR 26.90 billion from Nomura.

For the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), Oil India's net profit is likely to range from a low of INR 41.90 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to a high of INR 54.74 billion from JM Financial. The company's FY26 net sales are expected to range from INR 210.70 billion from Motilal Oswal to INR 319.50 billion from JM Financial. The EBITDA for FY26 is seen between INR 64 billion and INR 104.91 billion, with Prabhudas Lilladher providing the lowest estimate and JM Financial giving the highest.

Oil India is an oil producer focused on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company has wholly-owned subsidiaries in Sweden, Singapore, and the Netherlands. It also owns majority stake in Numaligarh Refinery Ltd. in Assam.

Monday, shares of Oil India ended 7.7% higher from Monday at INR 490.95 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has remained largely steady since the company announced its December quarter earnings after market hours Feb. 10. Oil India will detail its March quarter earnings Wednesday. Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation with an average target price of INR 548, nearly 12% higher than the current price. The other two advise investors to "hold" the stock. 

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Oil India from 10 broking firms in descending order of the net profit estimate:

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Edited by Rajeev Pai

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