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Informist, Monday, May 11, 2026

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – A robust growth in wholesale sales and a mid-single-digit increase in realisation per unit sold in the March quarter are expected to help TVS Motor Co. Ltd. register a double-digit increase in its top line for the 16th consecutive quarter, according to analysts' estimates. However, the Tamil Nadu-based automotive giant's net profit growth is expected to slow down to a five-quarter low due to a very high base.

Its net profit for the March quarter is expected to be INR 10.05 billion, up almost 18% on year, according to the average of 15 brokerages' estimates. The highest estimate for the company's bottom line is INR 10.71 billion by Kotak Securities and the lowest estimate is INR 8.34 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

TVS Motor's revenue for the March quarter is projected to surge 32% on year to INR 125.92 billion, according to the average of 15 estimates. The forecast for TVS Motor's top line ranges between a high of INR 129.55 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and a low of INR 107.64 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities.

If the projections are met, the company's bottom line and top line are expected to hit a record high, according to data available with Informist. The company sold 1.56 million automobiles in the March quarter, up 28% on year and only 1% on quarter. The relatively weaker quarter-on-quarter performance is expected to be reflected in the company's financials as forecasts peg a bottom line growth of 2.4% and revenue growth of 0.9%, sequentially.

The average selling price of TVS Motor's automobiles for the March quarter is likely to have improved 4-5% on year because of a higher proportion of premium motorcycles and electric two- and three-wheelers in the company's sales mix, analysts said. The average selling price of the company's vehicles is expected to be INR 81,800, up from INR 78,500 in the year-ago quarter and INR 80,800 in the December quarter, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said.

TVS Motor holds a market share of around 20% in the two-wheeler segment, up from around 16% three years ago. In 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company sold 4.04 million units in the domestic retail market, up 23% on year – higher than the 13% growth in the two-wheeler industry. The company gained ground primarily because of higher scooter sales, with consumers preferring scooters to motorcycles amid rapid urbanisation. TVS Motor also has a robust presence in the three-wheeler space. It sold 55,488 three-wheelers in FY26, more than double 25,882 units sold in FY25. Its market share in the space also doubled to 4.1% in FY26.

"TVS continued to outperform 2W (two-wheeler) peers with 28% YoY growth in 4Q (Jan-Mar), led by strong growth in scooters (+31%), motorcycles (+23%), and 3W (+65%). Exports rose 24% YoY," Motilal Oswal said. Additionally, the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar is also expected to reflect in growth in realisation per unit sold.

TVS Motor's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter are expected to be INR 16.19 billion, up roughly 21% on year, according to the average of 12 estimates. The highest estimate for TVS Motor's EBITDA is INR 16.73 billion by Nomura Equity Research and the lowest estimate is INR 12.93 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. Kotak Securities has pegged a 25% on-year growth in TVS Motor's EBITDA for the March quarter because of operating leverage and a higher proportion of high-margin products in its sales portfolio, but this may be offset by elevated raw material costs.

The company had hiked prices by 0.3% in the March quarter to pass on input cost pressures. "We keep looking at price increases...this is a kind of a constant journey because we definitely want our growth momentum to continue, but we want to mitigate the journey with a combination of scale plus cost reduction plus product mix has definitely helped us and some appropriate price increases," K.N. Radhakrishnan, its director and chief executive officer, had told analysts in a post-earnings call in late January. "So this will be the strategy even in this (March) quarter," he had said.

For FY26, Motilal Oswal expects TVS Motor's net profit to be INR 36.58 billion, up almost 35% on year. Prabhudas Lilladher's projection of INR 37.10 billion net profit pegs a bottom line growth of around 37% on year. Both Motilal Oswal and Prabhudas Lilladher expect TVS Motor's top line for FY26 to grow almost 30% on year to around INR 471 billion.

TVS Motor will detail its financials on Wednesday. Monday, shares of TVS Motor ended 2.2% lower at INR 3,613.70 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen roughly 3% since TVS Motor reported its December quarter earnings on Jan. 28.

Of the 14 brokerage reports on TVS Motor available with Informist, 13 have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 4,212. This is roughly 16% higher than the stock's closing price Monday. The remaining brokerage has a "hold" call.

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates, in INR billion, for TVS Motor from 15 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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