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Informist, Monday, May 11, 2026

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – Tata Motors Ltd. is expected to report a healthy growth in its top line and bottom line for the March quarter primarily because of higher despatches of its commercial vehicles, according to analysts' estimates. Wholesale sales of commercial vehicles rose sharply in the second half of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) as the segment benefited from second-order effects of the goods and services tax cut, improved freight availability, and adequate financing.

Tata Motors is projected to report a net profit of INR 23.96 billion for the March quarter, up 49% on year and almost 14% on quarter, according to the average of six estimates. The highest projection for the company's bottom line is INR 33.18 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest projection is INR 21.15 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.

The company's revenue for the quarter under review is forecast to rise a touch over 20% on year and nearly 18% on quarter to INR 240.38 billion, according to the average of six estimates. Expectations for Tata Motors' revenue range from a high of INR 251.05 billion by Nuvama to a low of INR 236.34 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities.

The automotive giant sold 132,465 commercial vehicles in the March quarter, up 25% on year, partly lifted by a low base. Despatches of heavy commercial vehicles grew 29%, small passenger cargo and pickup vehicles increased 25%, and intermediate, light, and medium commercial vehicles grew 27% on year. This was the highest March quarter despatches registered by the company since FY21.

Despatches of the company benefited from a pick-up in mining, construction, and infrastructure activity, analysts said. Additionally, they gained from adequate financing availability and replacement demand. The GST cut, which became effective from Sept. 22, boosted consumption and improved fleet utilisation, supported the recovery in freight movement, Batlivala & Karani Securities said.

For Tata Motors, the March and June quarters are typically the strongest compared with the other two. "FY26 saw a subdued first half for the commercial vehicle industry, followed by a decisive recovery in H2 as demand conditions improved with the rollout of GST 2.0 and gained momentum through Q3 and Q4," its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Girish Wagh said earlier this year.

Tata Motors, which was carved out from its passenger vehicles business in September into a pure-play commercial vehicle company, has a market share of around 34% in the segment. Its market share in recent quarters has gained from higher sales of heavy commercial vehicles. The company expects the buses segment to do well in the March quarter, given the multiple tender wins, which it expects to deliver in the ongoing financial year.

Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter is expected at INR 37.73 billion, up 51% on year, according to the average of four estimates. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA for the reporting quarter is INR 54.38 billion by Nuvama and the lowest is INR 30.12 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd.

"Expect EBITDA margin to improve by ~100bps QoQ led by higher operating leverage and favourable net realisation, partially offset by higher raw material cost due to commodity inflation," ICICI Securities said. In its analyst call for the December quarter results held in late January, the company said that the same set of commodities that had been pressuring its margins in the earlier quarter remained an issue. These commodities included precious group metals and non-ferrous metals. Additionally, steel prices had increased. The company had hiked prices by 1% in January to offset this rise in input costs.

Tata Motors will detail its financials on Wednesday. Monday, shares of the company closed 4.6% lower at INR 411 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock fell roughly 13% since the announcement of its December quarter earnings on Jan. 29.

Of the 11 brokerage reports available on the company with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' call on the stock with an average target price of INR 526, over 28% higher than the current market price. One brokerage has a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation.

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Tata Motors from six brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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