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Informist, Monday, May 11, 2026

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – A decline in sales volume of mobile phones due to weak demand is expected to limit Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd.'s net profit and revenue growth during the March quarter. The growth in net profit is likely to be the slowest in eight quarters and that in revenue is expected to be in a low-single digit for the second quarter in a row after robust growth in 10 previous quarters.

Higher memory prices, market share decline of one of its key clients, and the delay in the approval for a joint venture with Vivo are also likely to affect the company's earnings for the quarter. The company's consumer electronics and home appliances segment is expected to provide some support as sales growth is likely to be healthy given the seasonally strong quarter.

The electronics and durables manufacturer is expected to report consolidated net profit of INR 1.78 billion, up 18% on year but down over 38% sequentially, according to the average of the estimates from 10 brokerages. The highest estimate for the bottom line is INR 2.20 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest INR 1.11 billion is from Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

According to the average of estimates of 10 brokerage firms, the consolidated revenue is expected to rise just over 2% on year and fall 1.5% on quarter to INR 105.07 billion. Kotak Securities Ltd. is the only brokerage which expects the company's revenue to decline owing to weak sales volume of mobile phones during the reporting quarter. Given this, the brokerage has given the lowest estimate of INR 97.21 billion for the top line. The highest estimate is INR 109.60 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

Consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen falling 14% on year to INR 3.91 billion, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerage houses. The estimates range from a low of INR 3.30 billion by Nirmal Bang and to a high of INR 4.25 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

The company's EBITDA margin is expected to contract 70 basis points on year to 3.6% as lower volumes are expected to have an impact on overall costs, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The brokerage is cutting its estimates to factor in lower mobile phone volumes due to higher memory prices and the delay in the approval for a joint venture with Vivo. "EBITDA margin is expected to contract yoy on negative operating leverage, while on a sequential basis it is expected to remain flat," according to YES Securities. 

The volumes for Dixon's mobile phone segment are likely to be weak due to a high base and adverse operating leverage, Nuvama Institutional Equities said. Sales of smartphones are likely to have taken a hit due to weak demand for Xiaomi and Ismartu, according to brokerages. Dixon Tech is expected to have sold over 6.3 million-6.4 million smartphones during Jan-Mar, down around 17% on year, Kotak Securities and Nomura said.

"India mobile industry sales were down 9% on year in the first nine weeks of 2026. We expect a 10-15% decline for FY27 overall, and even more in the budget segment," Nomura said. "This is likely to impact mobile volumes, as well, albeit partly offset by market share gain in Motorola, new customer addition, ramp-up of Longcheer JV, and export push driven by new mobile PLI (production linked incentive)," the brokerage said.  

The Noida-based electronics manufacturing services company is yet to disclose the date for its March quarter earnings. Market participants will watch out for mobile volumes in the current high memory price scenario, new client additions, updates on joint venture with Vivo, and ongoing expansions on backward integration. Approval for the Vivo joint venture remains a key catalyst for recovery from the second half of the current financial year. These approvals and government incentives, along with a recovery in margin should be visible from Oct-Mar onwards, Nomura said.

At 0915 IST, shares of Dixon Tech traded 2% lower at INR 10,585 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has risen by over 1% since the company announced its December quarter earnings. The stock is also down nearly 45% from its all-time high of INR 19,148.90, hit on Dec. 17, 2024. The company is set to declare its March quarter earnings on Tuesday.

Of the 13 research reports on the company available with Informist, 12 have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 13,802, which is almost 28% higher than the closing price Friday. Only YES Securities has a 'reduce' call on the stock with a target price of INR 15,556. 

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Dixon Technologies from 10 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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