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Informist, Friday, May 8, 2026

MUMBAI – Monsoon is likely to be below normal to the tune of 94% of the long-period average of 868.6 millimetres for the four-month period of Jun-Sept, Skymet said. In its earlier forecast in January, the private weather agency had assessed the 2026 monsoon to be subpar and has now retained the same outlook, it said.

"After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral (El Nino–Southern Oscillation). Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Nino is expected during the early phase of the southwest Monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular," said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet. 

Other than El Nino–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole has the capacity to drive monsoon circulation, the weather agency said. Skymet expects the Indian Ocean Dipole to be neutral and slightly positive, which could contribute to a decent start to the monsoon. But in the second half of the season, monsoon is going to be deficient, it said. 

Skymet expects the rainfed zone of the central and western parts to witness inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to see less than normal rains, and more so, during Aug-Sept. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country.  End

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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