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Informist, Thursday, May 7, 2026

By Avishek Rakshit

KOLKATA – Healthy volume growth across the domestic foods portfolio and price-led growth overseas are expected to lead Tata Consumer Products Ltd. maintain its growth momentum in the March quarter, in tune with the previous quarters. While lower tea procurement costs led Tata Consumer to cut prices and improve sales volumes, it also led to slower revenue growth in the March quarter from its mainstay tea business.

India's second-largest tea retailer by value and volume, which will declare financial results for the March quarter Friday, is expected to see around 3% volume uptick in domestic tea sales. Although Tata Consumer does not directly declare the contribution from its tea sales in India to its overall revenue, sector analysts estimate it to be as high as 22-25%.

The beverages category in India, of which tea is a part, remains the main revenue earner for the company despite its increasing focus on building a strong foods and pulses category. Global sales, majorly in the US, the UK, and Canada, comprise 25% of its annual revenues.

The March quarter top line of Tata Consumer is expected to rise 14% on year to nearly INR 53 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. On a sequential basis, the company's revenue is expected to increase 3%. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 53.20 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is 51.64 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

Tata Consumer's bottom line for the March quarter is expected to rise nearly 37% on year but increase less than a percent sequentially to INR 4.10 billion. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 4.49 billion from Nomura Equity Research and the lowest is INR 3.77 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. 

Kotak Securities Ltd. expects Tata Consumer to report a 15% on-year growth in its foods business in India led by an 11% value growth from salts and a 30% revenue growth from the Sampann brand of foods business. 

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. also expects Tata Consumer to report a 15% on-year revenue growth driven by strong sales in the foods business in India and ready-to-drink products. It expects the company to report a 10% volume growth in India from the non-tea business. 

Some brokerages expect Tata Consumer to report a 9-10% constant currency growth from its international branded business which largely comprises tea and coffee sales. While the growth in global markets like the UK and Canada will be price-led, the reported growth will be boosted by the rupee depreciation. 

The non-branded businesses, comprising soluble products and plantations, are expected to report a 25% on-year growth, partly aided by rupee depreciation, brokerages said. 

Tata Consumer's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected at INR 7.51 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The EBITDA estimates range between INR 7.34 billion by brokerage Motilal Oswal and INR 7.70 billion by Elara Securities.

Nuvama, which expects an 18% EBITDA growth, said Tata Consumer's margins may expand in the March quarter supported by operating leverage and favourable mix despite cost headwinds. Kotak expects the EBITDA to grow stronger by 23% on year and the EBITDA margin to expand by 95 basis points on year to 14.4%.

At 1151 IST, shares of Tata Consumer traded flat at INR 1,151.80 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are down around 3% since the company announced its December quarter earnings in January.

Of the 12 research reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at the average target price of INR 1,376. Two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the scrip at the average target price of INR 1,250.

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Tata Consumer from 11 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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