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Informist, Wednesday, May 6, 2026

 

By Prateem Rohanekar

 

MUMBAI – Bharat Forge Ltd. is expected to report a moderate on-year rise in its net profit and sales for the March quarter. Brokerages expect high passenger and commercial vehicle sales, along with the company's defence business, to drive revenues. A favourable exchange rate and benefits of operating leverage are expected to help the company report growth in net profit.

 

The company's standalone net profit for Jan-Mar is estimated at INR 3.79 billion, up over 3% on year, according to the average of estimates of five brokerages. The company's net sales are pegged at INR 23.16 billion, up over 7% on year.

 

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 3.94 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd., and the lowest is INR 3.49 billion YES Securities (India) Ltd. The highest estimate for the company's net sales is INR 23.64 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 22.25 billion by Nomura Equity Research.

 

HDFC Securities expects the company's standalone revenue to grow 4% on year, with good growth in the domestic business. The company could report better results if its revenue is not partially negated by a subdued performance of the exports business amid tariffs imposed by the US as well as the US' war on Iran, as per the brokerage.

 

The brokerage expects the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin to decline 130 basis points on year. Higher raw material, production, and freight costs are the primary reasons for the expected drop in the company's EBITDA margin. The company's EBITDA margin would have dropped further if not for a favourable foreign exchange impact, as per the brokerage.

 

Kotak Securities expects the company's standalone revenues to increase 10% on year, led by 40% growth in domestic segment revenues. The revenue growth in the domestic segment is, in turn, driven by a double-digit on-year increase in commercial and passenger vehicle production volumes and a recovery in the company's defence business revenues. The revenue growth could be better if it were not offset by a 10-11% on-year decline in export segment revenues amid weakness in passenger vehicle and non-auto business as well as tariff-related pressures, the brokerage said. It expects the company's defence segment revenues to rise marginally on a sequential basis.

 

It also expects the company's EBITDA margin to increase by 100 basis points sequentially to 28.2% in the March quarter, driven by benefits from operating leverage and a favourable foreign exchange rate.

 

Motilal Oswal expects the company's domestic business to grow due to a pickup in the commercial vehicles and defence business. The company's exports are expected to rise due to a pickup in US Class 8 heavy-duty trucks, which is likely to support growth.

 

YES Securities expects the company's revenues to increase 9% on year, driven by 5.8% on-year decline in the company's shipment tonnage at around 63,400 tonnes, while realisation will increase 15.8% on year to INR 372,000 per tonne. The brokerage expects the company's EBITDA margin to contract by 150 basis points on year to 28%, primarily due to weak gross margins.

 

The company is scheduled to announce its earnings for the March quarter on Thursday.

 

On Wednesday, shares of Bharat Forge closed 0.4% higher at INR 1,873.80 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has appreciated nearly 9% since the company announced its December quarter earnings on Feb. 12.

 

Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation with a target price of INR 1,861 apiece. This is 0.7% lower than the current market price. Four brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,734 apiece.

 

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Bharat Forge Ltd. from five brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage firm	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.	23.14	3.94
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	23.64	3.93	6.53
Nomura Equity Research	22.25	3.92	6.39
HDFC Securities Ltd.	23.20	3.66
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	23.59	3.49	6.51
Average	23.16	3.79	6.48

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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