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Informist, Wednesday, May 6, 2026

By Avishek Rakshit

KOLKATA – Recovering market shares, especially in low price packs, and an increase in sales volume post the goods and services tax cuts are expected to help Britannia Industries Ltd. report a sharp growth in net profit backed by decent revenue growth in the March quarter. 

After the GST rate cut which lowered biscuit prices, Britannia had increased the grammage in smaller packs to pass on the lower tax benefits to consumers. However, its competitors like Parle, Bisk Farm and several other brands had reduced pack prices instead of increasing grammage. This led Britannia to lose some market share to Parle and local brands in the December quarter which the company slowly recovered in the March quarter in part. 

For the past several quarters, Britannia's core focus has been to recover and further its market share which it believes will strengthen it top line and lead to meaningful profits in the mid to long term. For the several past quarters, Britannia has been reporting market share gains on year basis.
 

The March quarter consolidated top line of Britannia, which is one of the two largest bakery companies in the country, is expected to rise by over 10% on year to around INR 49 billion, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. However, on a sequential basis, the company's revenue is expected to decline around 2%. The highest estimate for revenue is around INR 51 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and the lowest is around INR 48 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

Britannia's consolidated bottom line for the March quarter is expected to rise around 20% on year but fall over 8% on quarter to nearly INR 7 billion. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 7.37 billion from Systematix and the lowest is INR 6.48 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. The company will declare its March quarter earnings on Thursday.

Brokerage Kotak estimate a 7% on-year volume growth for Britannia in the March quarter aided by grammage hikes in low priced packs and some recovery in market shares. Brokerage Kotak estimates Britannia to register a 4.5% on year price mix which will lead to a revenue growth of 11.5% on year. 

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. estimates a 2% pricing growth to aid the revenue growth projection of around 9% on year. It is also of the view that the volume growth is primarily on account of grammage additions post the GST rate cut. 

Britannia's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected at INR 9.50 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The EBITDA estimates range between INR 10.56 billion from Systematix and INR 9.10 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. 

Brokerage Kotak expects Britannia's consolidated gross margins to expand by 160 basis points on year to 41.7%, aided by benign raw material prices and expects the EBITDA margin to expand by 60 basis points on year to 18.8%.

At 1009 IST, shares of Britannia traded at INR 5,794.00 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.7%. The shares are down less than a percent since the company announced its December quarter earnings in February.

Of the 12 research reports on the company available with Informist, 11 have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 7,004 and one brokerage has a ‘sell' recommendation on the scrip. 

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Britannia Industries from 12 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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