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Informist, Tuesday, May 5, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in May, as surging crude oil prices have reinforced inflation concerns and dampened expectations of early monetary easing in the US. Most participants expect gold prices to trade sideways with a downward bias this month, weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields. 

 

As per the median of estimates from 10 broking firms polled by Informist, the June gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India are expected to be in a range of INR 145,250-INR 154,750 per 10 grams in May. On COMEX, gold prices are seen in a range of $4,375-$4,800 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing this report, the June contract was up 1% at $4,577.9 per ounce on COMEX.

 

After hitting a record high of $5,600 in late January, gold prices have entered a largely corrective phase. The yellow metal has fallen more than 14% since the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

 

While geopolitical uncertainties typically support gold prices, the current spike in crude oil prices has shifted the focus towards inflation risks. This has weakened expectations of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, reducing the appeal of the non-yielding yellow metal. 

 

According to CME's FedWatch, nearly 96% of traders expect the US Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in its June meeting, and 4.2% expect it to hike the rate by 25 basis points. Typically, higher interest rates dim the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal.

 

Analysts expect gold to remain under pressure in May, even as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran persist. The US President Donald Trump threatened that Iran would be "blown off the face of the earth" if it targets US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref reiterated that managing the strait is a "legitimate right" of Iran. 

 

"Gold June prices likely to slip towards INR 145,500-INR 144,000 level as long as it trades below INR 156,000 level", ICICI Direct said in its monthly outlook. The brokerage expects near-term corrections due to a strong dollar and shifting monetary policy expectations. "Long-term investors can use every dip to accumulate gold as long-term fundamentals remain structurally positive," it added. 

 

Karthick Jonagadla of Smallcase holds a similar view. "The bias is lower, not because the structural gold argument has broken, but because the near-term transmission is turning less supportive: higher US yields, a firmer dollar, and reduced confidence in early Fed easing are raising the opportunity cost of holding bullion."

 

Analysts also cautioned that crude oil volatility remains a key downside risk for gold. "If oil prices rise to $130 per barrel, then gold prices will see massive selling," Anindiya Banerjee, head of currency and commodity research at Kotak Securities, said. Crude oil prices hit a high of $117.58 in April on NYMEX amid worries of prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

Most analysts have placed $4,400 per ounce as a crucial support for gold prices in May. "From current spot levels around $4,560–$4,580, a test of $4,400 is a measured 3.5–4.0% move, not an aggressive bearish call," Jonagadla said. However, some said prices could fall further to $4,000-$4,300 levels.

 

"Prices may fall to $4,280 levels, but it is not likely to sustain," SMC Global Securities said. Meanwhile, Axis Securities' Deveya Gaglani said that gold prices may fall to $4,100 levels, the lowest in March, if crude oil volatility intensifies in May.

 

On MCX, analysts expect domestic gold prices to track global prices, but will likely be cushioned by a weak rupee against the dollar. On Tuesday, the rupee closed 0.2% lower at 95.28 against the dollar, after hitting a record low of 95.43 as fresh hostilities in West Asia dampened investors' risk appetite and pulled up crude oil prices. 

 

Following are the details of estimates from 10 brokerages for gold prices in May, in alphabetical order:

 

Brokerage	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)
Axis Securities	4,400	4,900	146,000	155,000
IndusInd Securities	4,300	4,700	145,000	153,000
Kedia Advisory	4,150	4,900	136,000	160,000
Kotak Securities	4,350	4,800	146,000	155,000
LKP Securities	4,400	4,800	146,000	154,000
Nirmal Bang	4,450	4,800	144,000	158,500
Prithvi Finmart	4,400	4,850	146,500	155,500
SMC Global Securities	4,400	4,695	145,500	154,500
Smallcase	4,350	4,700	144,000	153,000
Ventura Securities	4,000	4,565	132,000	150,100
Median	4,375	4,800	145,250	154,750

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR XX.XX

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

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