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Informist, Tuesday, May 5, 2026

By Eshitva Prakash

MUMBAI – Lupin Ltd. will likely report a sharp year-on-year rise in its revenue and net profit in the March quarter, owing to strong growth in its US sales. Its overseas operations are expected to benefit from a favourable mix, market share gains, and continued traction in complex generics. Some brokerages project that the pharmaceutical company will grow the fastest among its peers on an organic basis.

The company's consolidated net profit for the March quarter is expected to surge over 56% year-on-year to INR 12.06 billion, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's bottom line is INR 14.58 billion by Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd., while the lowest is INR 7.92 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

The pharmaceutical company is expected to report a 23% year-on-year jump in its consolidated revenue to INR 69.59 billion for the reporting quarter. The highest revenue estimate is INR 71.83 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd., while the lowest is INR 64.20 billion from Emkay Global.

On a sequential basis, the company's net profit is expected to decline 25% and its top line is seen to be 2.9% lower. Oct-Dec is typically the strongest quarter for generic drug sales, owing to the flu season in the US.

Several brokerages said Lupin will likely be the fastest-growing domestic pharmaceutical company in the US in the March quarter. Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. sees the company's US revenue rising to $346 million in the March quarter, while ICICI Securities Ltd. estimates it at $350 million, much higher than $245 million a year ago.

Brokerages attributed the high growth in the US to traction from new niche products and continued robust sales of key products such as generic Mirabegron and generic Tolvaptan. These are expected to help limit the impact of modest price erosion in the company's base portfolio and rising competition in generic Albuterol sales. Sales of generic Spiriva and generic Xarelto are also expected to support growth in the US, according to some brokerages.

However, brokerages expect US sales to remain largely flat sequentially as Albuterol and flu-related drug sales taper off in the March quarter. In the trailing quarter, US sales rose 46% year-on-year in dollar terms to $350 million. New injectable launches may not scale up as quickly as its now-established generics line did in earlier quarters, YES Securities (India) Ltd. said. Meanwhile, Systematix Research said the launch of the glucagon injection in August may benefit the company in the reporting quarter.

Brokerages said the sustainability of generic Tolvaptan sales after the expiry of exclusivity, amid increased competition, along with the ramp-up of complex injectables and timelines for key biosimilar launches, will determine the US sales trajectory going forward.

The company's revenue growth in India will likely be similar to that in the trailing quarter. India formulations are supported by chronic therapies and new launches, brokerages said. Nuvama projects 10% year-on-year growth in its India business, while Systematix expects steady growth. In the year-ago quarter, its sales in India rose almost 7% to INR 17.11 billion and accounted for 31% of Lupin's global sales.

Lupin's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to rise 48% on year, but decline 14% sequentially to INR 19.06 billion, according to consensus estimates. Equirus has the highest projection for EBITDA at INR 21.74 billion, while Emkay Global has the lowest at INR 14.05 billion.

Systematix expects the company's EBITDA margin to expand slightly due to better operating leverage, improved product mix, and lower dependence on in-licensed products. This expansion is likely to be partially offset by higher research and development investments.

The company will report its earnings on May 7.

Of the 14 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 2,477, indicating an upside of nearly 6% from the current market price. Tuesday, the company's shares ended 0.2% lower at INR 2,343.30 on the National Stock Exchange. Its shares have risen almost 6% since the company released its December quarter earnings.

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Lupin from 10 brokerages, in INR billion, in descending order of the net profit estimate:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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