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Informist, Monday, May 4, 2026

By Afra Abubacker 

NEW DELHI – Thermax Ltd. is expected to report a modest rise in net profit for the March quarter, supported by strong project execution and milestone billings. However, higher input costs and supply chain disruptions amid the West Asia conflict are likely to weigh on margins. Earnings are seen rising in the double digits sequentially.

The Pune-based energy, environment, and industrial solutions provider's consolidated net profit for the reporting quarter is expected to rise by over 5% on-year and more than 30% on-quarter to INR 2.17 billion, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. The highest estimate is INR 2.48 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest is INR 1.50 billion by HDFC Securities Ltd.

The company's revenue is seen rising nearly 6% on-year and 24% on-quarter to INR 32.69 billion, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate is INR 34.64 billion by BK Security and the lowest is INR 27.00 billion by HDFC Securities.

Brokerages expect strong execution across the company's core segments to support revenue growth in the March quarter. Typically, capital goods companies see a pick-up in order execution in the fourth quarter amid a healthy order backlog and year-end project closures. "Q4 is likely to remain a strong execution quarter for Thermax, supported by higher project progress and milestone billings," Nuvama said.

"We anticipate Thermax to register modest revenue growth of 10% YoY driven by healthy execution in industrial products and infrastructure," Prabhudas Lilladher said. However, Nuvama expects only about 2% on year growth in revenue, due to the higher base last year and gas supply issues weighing on execution.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter are seen at INR 3.16 billion, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 3.53 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher and the lowest estimate is INR 2.40 billion by HDFC Securities. 

Prabhudas Lilladher expects EBITDA margin to expand by 70 basis points, with better gross margin partly offset by higher operating expenses in the March quarter. Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal expects EBITDA margin to expand by 30 bps, as weakness in the chemical segment is seen partly offsetting improvement in product mix and operating leverage.

"We see a clearer margin upcycle from FY27, as better-quality order intake increasingly feeds into execution, supporting a healthier mix and improvement in the company's PBT margin profile," Nuvama said.

Thermax will announce its Jan-Mar earnings on May 7. Analysts will track management comments on execution pace, order conversion, and execution of low-margin legacy orders. The performance of key subsidiaries First Energy Pvt. Ltd. and Thermax Onsite Energy Solutions Ltd. will also be in focus. 

Of the eight research reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 3,584, down over 14% from the current market price. Monday, the company's shares closed at INR 4,179.80 on the National Stock Exchange, up 2.5% from the previous close. Since reporting its December quarter earnings, the company's shares have risen nearly 42%.

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates in INR billion, for Thermax from eight brokerages, in descending order of net profit estimates:

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Edited by Saji George Titus

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