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Informist, Monday, May 4, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – After domestic headline indices rebounded on Monday to close higher, analysts expect them to consolidate in the near term. Developments on the global front, crude oil prices, and corporate earnings for the March quarter are expected to be the key factors to guide the equity market in the days ahead. Nifty 50 constituents Mahindra & Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro will detail their earnings for the March quarter on Tuesday.

 

"Market will continue to be volatile till the crude oil prices will be in three digits," said Sunny Agrawal, head of the fundamental equity research team of SBICAPS Securities. "Crude prices cooling down to below $90 per barrel can reverse the market sentiment into positive." At 1628 IST, the July futures contract of Brent crude was over 3% higher at $111.89 a barrel. Most analysts expect gradual hikes in retail fuel prices rather than a sharp jump.

 

In the latest development, crew members of an Iranian ship, seized by the US after it "failed to comply" with the US blockade on Iranian ports, have been transferred to Pakistan for repatriation, Al Jazeera reported, quoting Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On Sunday, US President Trump said his country would "help free up" ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz from Monday and would launch a campaign called Project Freedom, at the request of countries whose vessels were stranded in the strait, whom he referred to as "neutral and innocent bystanders."

 

On Monday, the Nifty 50 ended at 24119.30, up 121.75 points or 0.5% higher. The BSE Sensex also closed 0.5% higher at 77269.40, up 355.90 points. Sunny of SBICAPS expects mid-cap and small-cap indices to outperform benchmark indices in the next three to six months. The broader market indices settled nearly 1% higher on Monday.

 

A breakout above the 24300 level and some positive news flow from the global market will help market sentiment to be positive, Ruchit Jain, technical and derivatives analyst at Motilal Oswal, said. He expects the Nifty 50 to face resistance at 24300 points and find support at 23800 points. Pharmaceutical stocks are likely to perform well in the short term, Ruchit said.

 

Prateek Agrawal, managing director and chief executive officer of Motilal Oswal AMC, says that while near-term risks to earnings and inflation persist, some of these shocks could be resolved quickly, and India's structural resilience may help navigate volatility better than many peer economies.

 

The rupee settled at a record closing low of 95.0875 against the dollar Monday. It settled below the psychologically crucial 95-per-dollar mark for the first time. "Persistent dollar demand is expected to keep the pressure on the rupee in the short term, driving the USD/INR higher toward the 95.35 and 95.70 level," Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note.

 

Foreign institutional investors continued their selling spree on Thursday, offloading shares worth INR 80.48 billion. Analysts expect investors to turn large buyers only when the geopolitical scenario turns positive, crude prices fall below the $100 a barrel mark, and the rupee stabilises.

 

A win for the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal is expected to accelerate administrative clearances for central schemes in the state, with better Centre-state alignment, and could be positive for the state's industrial policy and manufacturing in the medium term, Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said in a note on the West Bengal assembly election results.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.0875

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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