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Informist, Sunday, May 3, 2026

By Afra Abubacker

NEW DELHI – Jindal Stainless Ltd. is expected to report a modest rise in net profit for the March quarter, supported by higher stainless steel prices and inventory gains, according to brokerages. However, subdued exports and muted volumes due to domestic fuel shortages are likely to cap earnings growth.

The stainless-steel maker's standalone net profit for the March quarter is estimated at INR 8.53 billion, up more than 10% on year and 23% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's bottom line is INR 10.78 billion by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 7.66 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. 

The company's revenue is estimated at INR 108.08 billion, flat on year and up nearly 2% on quarter, according to brokerages' estimates. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 113.70 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., while the lowest is INR 104.01 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. 

"Jindal Stainless is expected to report muted volume growth due to a shortage of propane impacting March production," Prabhudas Lilladher said. Production in April was also likely impacted due to limited domestic fuel availability, it added. Exports are also seen as weak amid disruptions in key shipping routes due to the West Asia war.

The brokerage expects a slight volume degrowth of 1.5% on year to 633 kilotonnes due to weak exports. It also expects net smelter realisations to increase to 5.5% on quarter due to higher stainless steel prices.

Elara Securities sees Jindal Stainless as a laggard in the metals sector, citing potential production disruption in the June quarter as well. "Companies relying on the scrap route, such as Jindal Stainless, are likely to see a volume disturbance in Q1FY27," it said.

"Additionally, disruptions in global shipping routes are resulting in vessel diversions, longer transit times, and cargo delays, which are also placing additional pressure on supply chains and margins," Jindal Stainless said. 

Earlier this year, the company had said its plants were operating at a rationalised capacity due to the fuel constraints. "Unlike conventional steel industry, which largely utilises blast furnace and coke oven gases as energy sources, the stainless steel industry follows the scrap-based production route where such gases are not generated internally. Given the constraints in fuel availability, our plants are operating at a rationalised capacity," Jindal Stainless had said in an exchange filing on Mar. 13.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the reporting quarter are seen at INR 13.85 billion, up over 55% on year and 25% on quarter, the estimates from six brokerages showed. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from a high of INR 14.42 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 13.36 billion by Motilal Oswal.

ICICI Securities expects EBITDA to rise 36% on year and 2.4% on quarter due to inventory gains from higher nickel prices, while Prabhudas Lilladher sees EBITDA rising 32% on year on a weak base and 1% on quarter. 

Jindal Stainless will announce its earnings for the quarter and year ended March on Monday. Analysts will track management comments on recent expansions, capacity utilisations, fuel availability, and demand outlook across domestic and overseas markets.

Of the eight research reports on the company available with Informist, six have a ‘buy' recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 903, up 18% from the current market price. Thursday, the company's shares closed at INR 767.40 on the National Stock Exchange, down 2% from the previous close. Since reporting its December quarter earnings, the company's shares have risen 1.4%.

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Jindal Stainless Ltd. from seven brokerages in descending order of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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