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Informist, Saturday, May 2, 2026

By Avishek Rakshit

KOLKATA – Strong growth in monthly transacting user base, which led to a surge in gross order value, is expected to help food and grocery delivery platform Swiggy Ltd. report robust revenue growth in the March quarter. However, increasing depreciation and amortisation costs arising from new store openings for the grocery delivery business may keep the profit and profitability under pressure.

Swiggy's consolidated net loss is expected to narrow to INR 8.46 billion in the March quarter from INR 10.81 billion a year ago, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The company had reported a net loss of around INR 10.55 billion in the December quarter. However, the consolidated revenue for the March quarter is expected to rise around 44% on year to nearly INR 64 billion, according to the average of estimates. On a sequential basis, revenue is expected to rise over 3%. 

The highest estimate for Swiggy's net loss is INR 10.62 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 2.70 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd. The highest estimate for revenue is slightly below INR 67 billion by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., and the lowest is INR 57.44 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. Swiggy will declare its financial results for the quarter and year ended March on Friday.

HDFC Securities expects Swiggy, which has a 43% market share in the country's online food delivery business, to have registered a 19% on-year growth in food delivery and 80% on-year growth in quick commerce, in terms of gross order value. The quick commerce business, housed under the Instamart brand, is expected to have registered 62% on-year growth in net order value, HDFC Securities said. Usually, the quick commerce vertical accounts for around 17% of the company's total revenue. 

Gross order value represents the total revenue of delivery platforms before deductions, including discounts, taxes, and delivery fees, indicating top line sales volume. Net order value is the actual revenue remaining after subtracting returns, discounts, and fees, reflecting true earnings. Thus, gross order value shows the platform size, while net order value shows profitability.

The average order value, according to HDFC Securities, is likely to be around INR 453 for food deliveries and INR 740 for quick commerce. Monthly transacting users are estimated to have risen 23% on year for food deliveries and 28% on year for quick commerce verticals. Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., however, warned that Swiggy's gross order value in the food delivery business may decline marginally on quarter.  

Nevertheless, most brokerages are bullish on an improvement in the gross and net order value in the Instamart business, which is expected to support the sequential narrowing of losses for Swiggy in the March quarter. 

Swiggy is expected to report an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation loss of INR 6.96 billion, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. HDFC Securities has the highest estimate for EBITDA loss at INR 7.80 billion and Kotak Securities has the lowest projection at nearly INR 5 billion.

EBITDA loss from the Instamart business is expected to widen as new store openings are likely to increase depreciation and amortisation costs, while increased competition could impact margins. 

Thursday, shares of Swiggy ended at INR 270.30 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.71% from the previous close. The stock has fallen around 18% since the company announced its December quarter earnings in January. 

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, eight have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 480. One brokerage has a ‘sell' recommendation. 

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Swiggy from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net loss in INR billion:

End 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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