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Informist, Saturday, May 2, 2026

By Reshma Ravi

MUMBAI – Petronet LNG Ltd. is expected to report a substantial on-year decline in net profit, primarily due to lower liquefied natural gas volumes and weaker terminal utilisation following supply disruptions from Qatar. Pressure from volatile spot liquefied natural gas prices also weighed on Jan-Mar earnings.

India's largest LNG importer is expected to report a net profit of INR 7.71 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. This translates to a near 28% on-year fall and 9% sequential decline. The company's net sales are expected to fall over 20% on year and over 12% sequentially to INR 97.99 billion for the quarter, the estimates show.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 14.04 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 6.05 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. The highest estimate for the company's net sales is INR 107.60 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., while the lowest projection is INR 89.43 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. 

Brokerages largely attribute the expected decline in net profit to weaker liquefied natural gas volumes at Petronet LNG's key terminals amid supply disruptions from Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, which subsequently hit utilisation levels at the Dahej terminal. "PLNG (Petronet LNG) volumes expected to decline 4.5% YoY/-16% QoQ, primarily due to lower Dahej utilization (~78%). The quarter was particularly weak in March'26, impacted by supply disruptions (force majeure) from RasGas and a sharp rise in spot LNG prices (~21.7%)," Systematix said.

On Mar. 4, Petronet LNG issued a force majeure notice to partners, including QatarEnergy, as its vessels were unable to safely transit through the Strait of Hormuz to reach Ras Laffan amid the military conflict in West Asia. Petronet LNG procures liquefied natural gas from QatarEnergy, the world's largest producer of the commodity, under a contract.

Dahej terminal's utilisation is likely to decline to 83% of its capacity following the force majeure declared by Qatar Energy, while that of Kochi is likely to fall to 27%, Emkay said.

Meanwhile, some firms added that elevated volatility in spot liquefied natural gas prices further impacted trading conditions during the quarter. However, potential inventory and trading gains could partially support earnings, analysts said.

Petronet LNG is expected to post an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 11.05 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 19.28 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., while the lowest is INR 8.91 billion by Systematix Shares.

Brokerages expect EBITDA to decline on a year-on-year and sequential basis, largely tracking the weakness in LNG volumes and lower utilisation at key terminals, particularly Dahej. Some analysts also highlight that the disruption in long-term LNG cargo availability from Qatar is likely to weigh on the company's operating performance during the quarter. The company's EBITDA is likely to fall 25% on quarter, as more than 50% of its LNG supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to JM Financial.

However, a few brokerages noted that tariff hike at its key terminals and modest gains from spot LNG trading may somewhat support profitability, though it would not be enough to fully offset the impact from lower volumes. "We expect adjusted EBITDA to be flat yoy (down 4% qoq), as lower qoq volumes will be partly offset by Dahej tariff increase," Kotak said.

Investors will closely watch the management's commentary on liquefied natural gas supply normalisation, particularly the recovery in cargo flows from Qatar and its impact on utilisation levels at the Dahej and Kochi terminals. Trends in spot liquefied natural gas prices and demand from key end-user segments such as power and fertilisers will also be keenly watched going ahead.

For the December quarter, Petronet LNG reported a net profit of INR 8.48 billion, down over 2% on year. The company's revenue from operations was INR 111.64 billion, down nearly 9% on year.

Of the 12 brokerage reports available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 343 per share, up nearly 23% from the current market price. Two brokerages have a ‘sell' recommendation, while one has a 'hold' recommendation on the stock.

Thursday, shares of Petronet LNG closed at INR 276.76 on the National Stock Exchange, down over 1%. The stock has fallen nearly 4% since the announcement of the company's December quarter earnings on Feb. 12. Petronet will detail its March quarter results Monday.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Petronet LNG Ltd. from 11 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion: 

End

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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