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Informist, Friday, May 1, 2026

By Afra Abubacker

NEW DELHI – Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. is expected to report a sharp rise in net profit for Jan-Mar, driven by improved execution in its power segment and seasonally strong deliveries in the quarter. On a sequential basis, profit is seen more than doubling amid a weak base and a pick-up in project execution, according to analysts.

The state-owned capital goods maker's standalone net profit for Jan-Mar is expected to rise over 52% on year, and more than 100% on quarter to INR 7.67 billion, according to the average of estimates from four brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 10.06 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd. and the lowest is INR 6.28 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd.

BHEL's revenue is expected to rise nearly 20% on year and 27% sequentially to INR 107.61 billion in the March quarter, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 113.59 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 100.28 billion by JM Financial.

For the December quarter, BHEL had reported a 206% on-year jump in net profit at INR 3.82 billion on revenues of INR 84.73 billion, up 16% on year.

While most brokerages expect execution to improve well, some have flagged a potential revenue shortfall due to lower availability of industrial gases, which would have impacted operations. "We estimate revenue shortfall of INR 25 bln–INR 30 bln in 4Q, impacting our revenue estimate for FY26," JM Financial said.

The brokerage has cut its revenue estimate to INR 315 billion from INR 335 billion earlier, and retained FY27 estimates at INR 416.5 billion. "A prolonged conflict could necessitate downward revisions to our FY27 estimates also," it added.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be at INR 11.46 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of estimates. JM Financial has projected the highest EBITDA at INR 14.23 billion, while Kotak has the lowest at INR 9.15 billion.

Brokerages differ on their outlook for margins. Some expect margin expansion amid operating leverage and better execution, while others see pressure from rising employee costs and the continued impact of legacy low-margin projects. "As the share of newer, better-margin projects gradually enters the revenue recognition phase, we expect BHEL's turnaround to become more visible by FY27E," Nuvama Wealth Management said.

BHEL ended FY26 with an order book of around INR 2.4 trillion and order inflows of about INR 750 billion. The power sector was the company's most lucrative business, in which it secured order wins of around INR 590 billion during the year, BHEL had said in an exchange filing.

The industrial segment recorded fresh orders of around INR 160 billion in sectors such as transportation, transmission, defence, process industries, and industrial equipment. The company commissioned or synchronised around 8.9 gigawatts of power capacity in this period, BHEL had said in an exchange filing, the company said.

BHEL will announce its March quarter earnings on Monday. Investors will track management's commentary on order execution momentum in the power segment, margin trajectory amid legacy project overhang, and the outlook on order inflows.

Of the six brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 358, up nearly 2% from the current market price. Friday, the company's shares closed at INR 352.41 on the National Stock Exchange, up 2.3% from the previous close. Since reporting its December quarter earnings, the company's shares have risen 23%.

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for BHEL from four brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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