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Informist, Friday, Apr. 30, 2026

By Astha Oriel

NEW DELHI – Jindal Steel Ltd. is expected to report a marginal year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit, despite a likely double-digit growth in the top line for the March quarter, led by higher volumes, according to brokerages tracking the company. The company's operating margin is seen under pressure due to elevated coking coal prices, which are expected to offset an increase in net sales realisation, according to analysts.

The company's consolidated net profit for the March quarter is expected at INR 8.79 billion, down more than 1% on year, but up over threefold sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. has the highest net profit estimate at INR 12.30 billion, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest at INR 6.50 billion. If realised, this will be the slowest year-on-year decline in the company's net profit in three consecutive quarters.

The net sales of the metals major are expected at INR 150.72 billion, up over 14% on year and nearly 16% on quarter, according to the average of brokerages' estimates. Elara Securities has the highest estimate for net sales at INR 160.20 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 144.53 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. This is likely to be the fastest on-year revenue growth in three consecutive quarters, as per analysts' consensus.

Sales volume for the March quarter is expected at 2.4 million tonnes-2.6 million tonnes, as per six brokerages' estimates. In the year-ago quarter, the company's net sales volume was 2.13 million tonnes. Emkay Global estimates the company's steel production for the March quarter at 2.6 million tonnes.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, is expected at INR 23.72 billion, down over 4% on year and up nearly 49% sequentially, according to the average of 11 brokerages' estimates. Elara Securities has the highest estimate of EBITDA at INR 29.60 billion, and the lowest estimate is INR 22.04 billion by Nomura Equity Research.

An increase in coking coal prices is likely to offset the year-on-year increase in net sales realisation, weighing on EBITDA per tonne. The company's net sales realisation per tonne in the March quarter is expected at INR 59,983-INR 60,562, according to five brokerages.

"On the cost front, elevated coking coal prices are likely to exert some pressure on margins. As a result, JINDALST's (Jindal Steel's) EBITDA/tonne is expected to moderate on a y/y (year-on-year) basis," Anand Rathi Share and Stock Broker Ltd. said in an earnings preview report. The brokerage estimates coking coal cost was at $251 per tonne in the March quarter. In the December quarter and year-ago quarter, the coking coal prices were $216 per tonne and $199 per tonne, respectively. The steel major's EBITDA per tonne is estimated at INR 9,234-INR 11,576, according to the estimates by six brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the company's adjusted EBITDA per tonne was INR 11,651.

For 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company's net profit is likely to be INR 29.10 billion-INR 32.70 billion, according to the average of estimates of three brokerages. The company's FY26 net sales are expected at INR 515.60 billion-INR 524.95 billion, according to the brokerages' estimates. The EBITDA for FY26 is projected at INR 87.40 billion-INR 90.177 billion, as per the estimates.

The company will announce the March quarter results on Friday. Analysts will watch for the management's commentary on the guidance for steel production, sales volumes, and coal production, along with timelines for full ramp-up of new capacities and the capital expenditure plans for FY27.

Thursday, shares of the company closed 0.41% lower at INR 1,223.10 on the National Stock Exchange. Shares of the company have risen nearly 11% since the company reported its December quarter results on Jan. 30.

Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a ‘buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 1,261 per share. This is 3% higher than the current share price. Two brokerages have a ‘hold' call with an average target price of INR 1,116, and one has a ‘sell' recommendation.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Jindal Steel Ltd. from 11 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

End

US$1 = INR 94.91

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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