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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 30, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Analysts expect the domestic equity market to consolidate Monday amid escalating crude oil prices and reports saying that US naval blockade of Iran ports could last several months. However, any positive developments on the global front could lead to a slightly higher opening of the market, analysts added. The March quarter corporate earnings, continuous outflow of foreign investments, and upcoming state Assembly election results are also key factors that will decide market direction. The domestic equity market will be shut Friday on account of Maharashtra Day.

 

US President Donald Trump said the blockade was a success and urged Tehran to "just give up", Al Jazeera reported. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker, dismissed the US' economic pressure campaign as the Iranian military warned that its restraint so far has been "intended to give diplomacy a chance".

"...unless and until this situation (in Strait of Hormuz) normalises or there is clarity on the way forward, the uncertainty in markets will remain," Alok Churiwala, managing director at Churiwala Securities, said. "I expect markets to remain choppy."

 

Thursday, the Nifty 50 closed at 23997.55, down 180.10 points or 0.7%. The BSE Sensex ended at 76913.50, down 582.86 points or 0.8%. Analysts expect the 50-stock index to face resistance at 24400 level and find support at 23600–23500 level.

 

"If the Nifty 50 closes below 24000 level, then we have to take a bearish stance on the market outlook," Sundar Kewat, technical and derivatives analyst at Ashika Group, said. However, "if the Nifty 50 opens on a positive note, sustaining higher levels may remain challenging due to the strong resistance of the 50-DMA (daily-moving average), currently placed near 24137," Kewat said.

 

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley expects a strong policy response and greater capital expenditure activity amid the West Asia conflict, to address India's supply-side challenges in energy, fertilisers, and defence, according to its report. It sees India's medium-term growth trajectory remaining well supported, with real GDP growth of around 6.5-7.0%. Earlier this month, the bank projected India's GDP growth in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) at 6.2%.

 

Morgan Stanley expects higher import bills and defence spending to weigh on India's fiscal deficit, which may temporarily widen. It sees the fiscal deficit at 4.6–4.8% of GDP in FY27 compared with 4.3% of GDP estimated in the Budget, even though the deficit had remained on a consolidation path, the report said.

 

Foreign institutional investors continued their selling spree by offloading shares worth INR 24.68 billion on Wednesday. Domestic institutional investors, meanwhile, bought shares worth INR 22.62 billion. "...Considering the macro-economics situation on account of rising crude prices and the fear of inflation once again haunting us, we need to take even the tepid valuations with a pinch of salt," Churiwala said.

 

After the Reserve Bank of India's intervention ensured that the Indian rupee did not settle below 95.00 per dollar, the unit recovered and settled at 94.9100 a dollar Thursday. The rupee recovered from its intraday losses as crude oil prices eased from its four-year high. At 1654 IST, the June futures contract of Brent crude oil was nearly 3% lower at $114.88 per barrel. "Near-term, support (for rupee) is seen around 95.45, while resistance is placed near 94.60, with volatility expected to remain elevated," Jateen Trivedi, research analyst of commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

"Overall, we expect the Bank Nifty to extend consolidation in the broad range of 54000-57500 amid stock specific action as we progress through the quarterly earning session of the banking stocks," Bajaj Broking Research said in a note. The Nifty Bank index closed nearly 1% lower Thursday.   End

 

US$1 = INR 94.85

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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