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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 30, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – A sharp rise in prices of coal and imported pet coke due to the war in West Asia, along with higher operating costs is expected to significantly hurt the bottom line of Ambuja Cements Ltd. for the March quarter, according to analysts. However, the company's top line is seen rising due to an uptick in volumes, mainly through acquisitions. Sequentially, however, analysts see both the metrics rising, with net profit more than doubling.

The Adani Group cement major is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 4.92 billion for the March quarter, down 40% on year, but up around 125% from the trailing quarter, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The company's consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to rise around 11% on year and around 8% on quarter to INR 110.67 billion, according to the average of the 12 estimates.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 8.88 billion from Nomura Equity Research, while the lowest estimate is INR 2.86 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a high of INR 117.32 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 106.75 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher.

"Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, fuel costs linked to crude oil have been on the upsurge. Imported coal and pet coke prices have risen 18% and 28%, respectively, in the past month," Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said.

Ambuja Cements' on-year net profit growth is also expected to decline due to rising operating costs. The company's overall costs are expected to increase 8% on year, according to Emkay. Nomura sees fixed costs rising 18% on year and operating costs per tonne rising 7% on year.

The company's volumes are expected to rise 7-18% on year and 7-13% sequentially in the March quarter, supporting the top line growth, according to most brokerages. Nomura sees the company's consolidated volumes rising 9% on year to 19.8 million tonnes in the reporting quarter, while Prabhudas Lilladher sees it at 20.6 million tonnes, led by "increasing market share and better demand". Kotak Securities expects the company's volumes to be even higher at 21.5 million tonnes.

Ambuja Cements is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 17.31 billion for the March quarter, down over 7% on year but up around 28% sequentially. ICICI Securities Ltd. has the highest estimate for the company's EBITDA at INR 20.60 billion, while Nomura has the lowest estimate at INR 14.30 billion.

Brokerages expect the company's EBITDA per tonne to decline on year. Sequentially, most expect the metric to rise from the trailing quarter, except Nomura, which sees it remaining flat at INR 721 per tonne due to "elevated costs". The sequential rise in EBITDA per tonne is expected due to slight improvement in realisation during the quarter, brokerages said.

Nuvama said Ambuja Cement's realisations are likely to rise 1.5% sequentially in the March quarter and Prabhudas Lilladher expects it to improve by a percent due to increase in cement prices across regions. "Pricing saw an uptick in January supported by improving demand; however, February-March witnessed slight volatility with partial rollbacks due to aggressive volume push and competitive intensity," brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher said in a report about the cement sector.

"We estimate blended realisations to increase qoq (quarter-on-quarter) by 1.1% (-0.3% yoy) led by improvement in non-trade prices," Kotak Securities said.

Of the 17 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 14 have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 635. This is around 43% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock while one has a 'sell' recommendation.

On Thursday, shares of Ambuja Cements closed 2.3% lower at INR 444.20 on the National Stock Exchange. The company had reported a net profit of INR 2.04 billion for the December quarter on revenues of INR 101.81 billion. Since its December quarter results, shares of the company have fallen around 13%. The company will detail its March quarter earnings on May 4.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Ambuja Cements from 12 brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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