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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The Indian southwest monsoon is expected to weaken significantly in the second half due to the onset and development of El Nino, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet. Chances of below-normal rainfall in August are 60%, while in September they stand at 70%, the weather agency said. The southwest monsoon spans from June to September, and rainfall typically peaks in the second half of the season.

 

The southwest monsoon is expected to begin weakening significantly in August, with rainfall projected at 92% of the long period average. Rainfall is likely to be significantly deficient in parts of northwest, central, and south India--particularly in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. The decline in rainfall in these areas is likely to indicate a broad-based weakening of monsoon currents, the weather agency said.

 

In August, parts of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha may witness near-normal rainfall, offering localised balance within an otherwise weak setup, it said. East and northeast India, and particularly parts of West Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha are expected to be better-off than the rest of the country during the month, with above normal rainfall likely over these regions due to the presence of active weather systems over the Bay of Bengal.

 

The strength of the monsoon is expected to weaken further in September, with rainfall expected at 89% of the long-period average, the weather agency said. The monsoon typically pulls out of the country beginning in September. The pattern of rainfall distribution expected during the month reflects a clear withdrawal-driven structure, with rainfall becoming limited, patchy, and regionally confined, it said.

 

In September, parts of central, northwest, and west India, especially Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, are likely to continue recording below-normal rainfall, the weather agency said. Parts of the Konkan and south Gujarat coasts may also see a decline in rainfall, indicating a drop in monsoon intensity even along typically active zones, the agency said.

 

Residual monsoon activity is likely to keep rainfall at near-normal levels over parts of east and northeast India. Parts of south peninsular India are expected to record largely normal rainfall due to the transitional weather systems during the withdrawal phase, the agency said.

 

Rainfall deficiency during August and September is likely to impact crop maturation, soil moisture retention, and reservoir replenishment, particularly across central and western India, the weather agency said. While parts of east India are likely to record adequate rainfall, the overall decline in monsoon activity will slow down water resource gains, the agency said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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