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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2026

MUMBAI – All international climate models, including the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's, forecast a further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is likely to reach El Nino thresholds later in the year. However, there is uncertainty about the potential strength of the El Nino event, with model forecasts ranging from a weak-to-moderate event to the possibility of a strong event, the Australian weather bureau said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday.

There are also variations across all climate models regarding the onset of El Nino, the bureau said. Some models suggest El Nino thresholds could be reached as early as May, while others project a slower warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with the onset of El Nino likely in July, it said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, the bureau said. Atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain consistent with neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions. The Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to cross the Indian Ocean in the next few days, and is likely to re-strengthen over the Western Hemisphere region in mid-May. If this occurs, the associated westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean could further enhance the warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, the weather bureau said. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30–60 days. It does not cause El Nino or La Nina, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of such events.

As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value was (-)0.23 degrees, which is within the neutral range, the bureau said. There has been substantial warming in recent weeks, with the index warming by 0.5 degrees Celsius in the past fortnight, suggesting a further warming of sea surface temperatures in the coming weeks. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

Currently, the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, the weather bureau said. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index is 0.90 degrees. All climate models indicate that the index is likely to remain neutral till the end of autumn, after which it could transition to positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions in either Southern Hemisphere winter or spring, it said. However, forecast uncertainty associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently high, with all models showing a large spread of possible outcomes, the bureau said.

Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere spans from March to June, winter from June to September, and spring from September to December. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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