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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – The military conflict in West Asia is expected to result in Indian energy companies in the Nifty 200 reporting moderate year-on-year aggregate revenue growth for the March quarter but a decline in net profit. Pressure on oil marketing companies and gas utilities, due to a sharp rise in global energy prices in March, is likely to offset gains that select upstream and power firms may post during the quarter.

 

The aggregate revenue of 22 energy companies in the Nifty 200 is expected to rise over 10% year-on-year in the March quarter, even as aggregate net profit is seen falling over 6% on year. On a trailing basis, revenue growth is estimated at over 9%, while net profit is likely to decline by nearly 10%, according to the average of estimates from 20 brokerages. The decline in net profit points to margin compression across segments.

 

The divergence in earnings trajectory is largely driven by oil marketing companies, where net profit is expected to decline sharply despite inventory gains and strong top-line growth. Downstream oil companies are likely to remain under pressure as marketing margins stay strained and input costs surge amid geopolitical tensions.

 

Crude oil prices were sharply higher in the March quarter. While prices averaged around $74 per barrel in the March quarter of 2024 and about $64 per barrel in the March quarter of 2025, dated Brent averaged about $104 per barrel in March 2026 and was up 28% year-on-year for the quarter.

 

This spike in crude prices, along with rupee depreciation and largely unchanged retail fuel prices, significantly compressed auto fuel margins for oil marketing companies.

 

Despite a rise in refining throughput, analysts estimate petrol margins for Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. may have fallen by over 90% to below INR 1 per litre in the March quarter. Diesel margins are estimated to have turned negative, at around an INR 12-per-litre loss, compared with gains of over INR 6 per litre a year earlier. Indian Oil Corp. is expected to report a 26% on-year rise in revenue, but its net profit is seen falling by about 4% on year. Similarly, Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. are likely to post revenue growth of over 23% and 21%, respectively, but their net profits are expected to decline 14% and 52%, respectively. Sequentially, profitability is expected to decline sharply, driven by weaker marketing margins and higher crude prices.

 

Standalone earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil Corp. are expected to decrease by 22-35% on a trailing basis due to weak marketing performance, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a note. The benchmark Singapore gross refining margins averaged $8.2 per barrel in the March quarter, compared with $7.5 per barrel in the December quarter, while petrol and diesel marketing margins declined significantly on a trailing basis. "Oil marketing companies' performance is likely to be boosted by refining and marketing inventory gains, while petrol/diesel under-recovery is largely expected to flow through in Apr-Jun, 2026," the brokerage said. 

 

Oil marketing companies are also expected to see a sharp rise in liquefied petroleum gas under-recoveries. Brokerages estimate LPG losses at over INR 300 per cylinder in March and around INR 190 per cylinder for the quarter, compared with around INR 45-50 per cylinder a year earlier.

 

Upstream companies, on the other hand, are expected to benefit from higher crude prices, although weaker gas realisations may weigh on revenue. Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. and Oil India Ltd. are expected to report revenue growth of around 4% and 9%, respectively. ONGC's net profit is expected to rise by nearly 34% on-year, while Oil India's net profit is estimated to decline by over 18%, reflecting cost pressures.

 

In the natural gas segment, GAIL (India) Ltd. and Petronet LNG Ltd. have declared force majeure, anticipating they may miss contractual obligations following the escalation of the West Asia conflict and disruption to supply routes. They have also been directed to divert gas to priority sectors such as fertilisers and city gas distribution at government-determined prices. GAIL India, the country's largest natural gas transmission company, is expected to report over 7% year-on-year decline in revenue, as transmission volumes remain subdued due to limited gas availability. Its net profit is expected to fall by over 41% year-on-year and nearly 25% on a trailing basis.

 

Petronet LNG, India's largest liquefied natural gas player with a capacity of 22.5 million tonnes per annum, is expected to report a year-on-year revenue decline of over 20% and a nearly 28?ll in net profit. Spot LNG prices rose nearly 20% on a trailing basis to around $13 per million British thermal units. Both companies are expected to report weak performances due to lower volumes. City gas distributor Indraprastha Gas Ltd. is also expected to report a year-on-year decline in net profit.

 

Of the 22 energy companies in the Nifty 200, 16 are expected to report a year-on-year fall in net profit in the March quarter, while six are seen posting growth. The revenue outlook remains relatively strong, with 18 companies expected to report increases and four likely to see declines. The oil and gas companies in the Nifty 200 are expected to record an over 6% year-on-year fall in their net profit, even as their aggregate revenue is expected to rise over 10% year-on-year.

 

Reliance Industries Ltd., the country's largest private-sector energy player with businesses spanning refining, petrochemicals, retail, telecom and gas production, has reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth and a 13?ll in net profit.

 

Power generation and coal companies in the index are expected to perform relatively better, with net profit projected to rise over 16% on-year and revenue by about 23%. NTPC Ltd. is expected to report modest year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, supported by higher generation and capacity additions, while Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. is likely to post a nearly 17% on year increase in revenue and over 2% growth in net profit on the back of asset capitalisation and regulated returns. Among private players, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. has recorded a net profit growth of 6% on-year to nearly INR 6.8 billion and a revenue increase of over 17% on-year to INR 74 billion. JSW Energy Ltd., on its part, is expected to report strong year-on-year revenue growth but a sharp fall in net profit.

 

Coal India Ltd. reported an 11% year-on-year growth in consolidated net profit to INR 108 billion in the March quarter, as an inventory gain, lower employee costs, and higher revenue helped offset rising costs and a dip in sales volumes.

 

Overall, while revenue growth for the energy sector is expected to remain healthy in the March quarter, margin pressures across downstream oil companies, gas utilities, and select power companies are likely to lead to a decline in aggregate net profit.

 

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates from 20 brokerage firms for 22 companies of the energy sector that are a part of the Nifty 200 index:

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %
BPCL	13,63,478	43,148	22.64	-13.50	14.58	-42.82
GAIL	3,30,896	12,086	-7.27	-41.01	-2.82	-24.58
Hindustan Petroleum	13,20,846	16,106	20.63	-51.99	14.80	-60.45
Indian Oil Corp	24,55,622	69,445	25.95	-4.40	20.12	-42.73
Indraprastha Gas	39,523	2,944	0.12	-15.69	-2.83	-23.89
Oil India	60,311	13,032	9.28	-18.11	22.68	61.23
ONGC	3,62,596	86,234	3.65	33.73	14.94	3.00
Petronet LNG	97,987	7,713	-20.44	-27.93	-12.23	-9.07
Reliance Ind +	28,22,878	1,91,092	8.00	-1.53	6.56	2.49
Adani Energy Solutions +	68,554	6,643	7.54	2.64	1.87	2.95
Adani Green Energy +	31,909	2,836	3.84	-28.40	21.88	N.A.
Adani Power +	1,43,099	22,784	0.51	-13.60	14.93	-10.17
Coal India +	3,74,644	91,222	-0.95	-5.02	7.27	27.45
JSW Energy +	48,762	685	52.89	-83.20	19.46	-87.62
NHPC	20,987	5,074	1.95	-43.24	11.79	73.26
NTPC	4,70,084	58,731	7.07	1.64	15.66	17.77
NTPC Green Energy +	8,200	3,100	31.78	32.92	25.52	1,673.46
Power Grid	1,28,086	44,360	16.63	2.30	16.39	6.63
SJVN	8,920	1,072	100.00	248.96	5.42	-86.14
Suzlon Energy +	56,946	7,760	50.26	-34.36	34.43	70.08
Tata Power +	1,66,090	8,517	-2.85	-18.32	19.07	0.21
Torrent Power +	70,752	5,575	9.59	-47.39	4.39	-13.32
Total	1,04,51,170	7,00,159	10.26	-6.43	9.47	-9.60

 

Notes:
+ Consolidated Figure
* Net interest Income
Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year
# Net premium income
Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter
N.A.: Not Available
 
Estimates from: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., Antique Stock Broking Ltd., Centrum Broking Ltd., Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd., Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., HDFC Securities Ltd., HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd., IIFL Capital Services Ltd., JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd., Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., Sharekhan Ltd., Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

Compiled by Mayur Nijap

 

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