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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are currently prevailing over the tropical Pacific Ocean, though the El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert system is currently in the "El Nino Watch" status, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report Monday. The climate centre sees 61% chance of an El Nino emergence during May-Jul.

 

Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to persist from April to June, with chances of the condition seen at 80% during the period, the climate centre said. Presently, the equatorial sea surface temperatures are near-to-above-average in the east-central Pacific Ocean.

 

Many international climate centres vary in their predictions of the strength of the upcoming El Nino event. The chances of a very strong El Nino event begin increasing from August, with the highest probability seen in Nov-Jan, data from the climate centre showed.

 

During Nov-Jan, the probability of the strength of the El Nino event--very strong, strong, and moderate--all stand at 25%, the climate centre said. However, it said stronger events do not always translate to bigger weather and climate impacts. "Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur," the centre said. During this period, there is a nearly 1-in-10 chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, it said.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The Indian weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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