Informist Poll
India IIP growth seen easing to 5-month low of 2.6% in Mar
This story was originally published at 21:48 IST on 27 April 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial output is likely to have eased to 2.6% in March, the slowest pace in five months, amid higher energy prices and logistical disruptions due to the West Asia conflict, according to an Informist Poll of 10 economists. Industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, rose 5.2% in February and 3.9% in March 2025.
Economists' estimates for IIP growth in March range from 1.5% to 3.9%. The statistics ministry will release the IIP data for March at 1600 IST, Tuesday.
Industrial growth is seen moderating in March, with manufacturing activity cooling, as indicated by a sharp decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index, although automobile production remained a bright spot, supported by policy measures, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said in a note.
The output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of IIP, contracted 0.4% in March, marking the weakest performance in 19 months.
The HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to a near four-year low of 53.9 in March, down from 56.9 in February, as elevated crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty amid the West Asia crisis weighed on business activity.
According to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, automobile production in March rose 20.2%, slightly slower than the 22.1% increase in February. The number of e-way bills generated rose 12.9% on year in March, slower than 18.8% the previous month.
The slowdown in sectors such as crude oil, coal, and electricity in the wake of the war in West Asia and the energy price shock is likely to weigh on industrial production growth in March, according to Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.
Following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in March:
|
ORGANISATION |
IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
|
ICRA |
1.5% |
|
QuantEco Research |
2.1% |
|
STCI Primary Dealer |
2.4% |
|
HDFC Bank |
2.5% |
|
ICICI Bank |
2.5% |
|
Emkay Global |
2.7% |
|
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. |
2.7% |
|
StanChart |
2.7% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
3.9% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
3.9% |
|
Median |
2.6% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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