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Informist, Monday, Apr. 27, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. is expected to post the slowest growth in consolidated revenue in the last five quarters despite a robust increase in container volumes, according to analysts' estimates. The company's net profit growth for the March quarter is expected to hit a three-quarter low as well due to rising costs on account of the West Asia crisis. The company's financials are, however, expected to receive a boost from the consolidation of North Queensland Export Terminal into its operations during the reporting quarter.

 

Adani Ports' consolidated net profit for the March quarter is projected to rise 9% on year and 3.6% on quarter to INR 33.15 billion, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. The highest net profit estimate is INR 40.90 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 28.84 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd.

 

The country's largest private port operator is expected to report a consolidated revenue of INR 98.46 billion, according to the average of nine estimates. If realised, the projections would translate to a growth of almost 16% on year and 1.5% on quarter. The company will detail its financials for the March quarter on Thursday.

 

Adani Ports' top line for the quarter is estimated in the range of INR 93.40 billion by Elara Securities and INR 109.13 billion by Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. "We expect revenues to be up 29% YoY (up 13% QoQ) on the back of volume growth aided by improvement in realisations due to rupee depreciation," Equirus said.

 

The Adani group company handles around 27% of India's total cargo. It derives nearly 70% of its revenue from the domestic ports business, which it terms as its main pillar of growth. The company has a share of around 46% of India's container market. It operates across eight states, including the flagship Mundra port. It also has a presence in Israel's Haifa, Sri Lanka's Colombo, Tanzania, and Australia through North Queensland Export Terminal, or NQXT. The company earns around INR 40 billion-INR 50 billion from its international business annually. Adani Ports had completed the acquisition of the terminal only in late December. Financials of its Australia operations have been consolidated into Adani Ports' financials from January.  

 

Port volumes are expected to grow 13% on year to around 133 million tonnes for the reporting quarter, according to multiple brokerage reports. "The port volumes growth is driven by inorganic elements (7-8% boost from Australia operations) and transhipment volumes, while domestic port revenue growth is driven by dredging and rail income driven by uptick in container volumes," Kotak Securities Ltd. said in a report. The company's port volumes rose 9.6% in the December quarter and 8.5% in the year-ago quarter.

 

The consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, of Adani Ports for the March quarter is projected to rise almost 14% on year to INR 57 billion, according to the average of nine estimates. The lowest estimate for Adani Ports' EBITDA is INR 54.49 billion from Emkay Global and the highest estimate is INR 64.11 billion from Equirus. EBITDA growth is supported by seasonally strong volumes and resilient realisations, despite near-term disruptions due to the ongoing war in West Asia, Prabhudas Lilladher said. 

 

WEST ASIA IMPACT

While the domestic ports operations is the primary pillar of growth for Adani Ports, the logistics business is the second key segment, contributing roughly 11% to the top line. Additionally, the company operates a fleet of over 114 tugs and over 28 dredgers for marine services.

 

Operations of logistics operators globally were impacted by the war in West Asia, which lasted 40 days, including all of March, before a ceasefire was announced. The ceasefire has been extended unilaterally by the US till Iran comes with a formal proposal to end the war. Around 15% of volumes handled at Mundra port are linked to West Asia and 50% of the crude and gas portfolio is linked to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut down by Tehran ever since the war broke out, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report. "Although we expect the impact to be limited for the month of Mar-26, a prolonged crisis might stretch the impact to FY27E," Emkay said.

 

Kotak Securities expects some quarter-on-quarter moderation in Adani Ports' marine revenues due to the military conflict. Adani Ports' consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to contract 250 basis points on quarter to 56.5?cause of weaker marine business and growing share of lower-margin international business, Kotak Securities said. The company had reported an EBITDA margin of 59% in the year-ago quarter and 59.6% in the December quarter.

 

For 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company's consolidated bottom line is expected to be INR 131.58 billion, up 16% on year, according to Motilal Oswal. Prabhudas Lilladher has pegged the profit growth for the full year at INR 130 billion, which translates to a year-on-year growth of roughly 15%.

 

Its consolidated revenue for FY26 is projected at INR 375.69 billion, up around 21% on year, Motilal Oswal said. Prabhudas Lilladher's projection for a top line of INR 376.50 billion for the full year translates to a year-on-year growth of a little over 21%.

 

On Monday, Adani Ports' shares ended 2.7% higher at INR 1,628.50 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has gained roughly 5% since it disclosed its December quarter earnings on Feb. 3. All eight research reports on the company available with Informist have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,859, around 14% higher than its current market price.

 

Following are the consolidated Jan-Mar earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone from nine brokerages, in descending order of net profit estimates:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	93.40	40.90	54.50
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	109.13	38.40	64.11
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	96.48	34.02	57.06
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	99.49	32.14	55.48
Nomura Equity Research	97.00	32.05	56.57
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	95.27	31.04	56.73
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	95.70	30.89	56.30
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	97.20	30.09	54.49
Kotak Securities Ltd.	102.43	28.84	57.72
Average	98.46	33.15	57.00

 

End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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