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Informist, Saturday, Apr. 25, 2026

By Astha Oriel

NEW DELHI – Mining major Vedanta Ltd. is likely to report a sharp year-on-year rise in its bottom line for the March quarter, supported by high prices of base metals such as aluminium and zinc, according to analysts tracking the company. The company's top line is expected to rise in double digits on year on higher sales volumes of the two metals.

The company's consolidated net profit for the March quarter is expected to be INR 83.48 billion, up nearly 140% on year and more than 39% on quarter, according to an average of estimates from six brokerages. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the highest estimate for net profit at INR 95.54 billion. The lowest estimate is INR 79.35 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. This is likely to be the second consecutive quarter of an increase in the company's net profit.

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said the average prices for aluminium, zinc, and silver have surged quarter on quarter by 13%, 2%, and 51%, respectively. The commodity prices were further supported by the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, analysts said.  

Vedanta's net sales are expected to be INR 495.06 billion, up more than 22% on year and nearly 112% on quarter, according to the average of estimates. Emkay Global has the highest estimate for net sales at INR 511.20 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 478.10 billion from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. Vedanta's net sales are expected to rise for the second consecutive quarter, as per analysts' consensus.

In the March quarter, the company's aluminium production was 613,000 tonnes, up 2% on year, driven largely by operational efficiencies. Alumina production at its Lanjigarh refinery was at a record high of 882,000 tonnes, up 104% on year. This unit recorded an exit run rate of 4 million tonnes per annum, the company had said earlier.

Zinc India posted its highest quarterly mined metal production at 315,000 tonnes, up 2% on year, driven by higher ore production and better grades. Zinc India operates through Hindustan Zinc Ltd., in which Vedanta holds 64.9% stake. Its saleable metal production was up 5% on year at 282,000 tonnes. The company produced 227,000 tonnes of refined zinc, up 6% on year, driven by additional capacity unlocked by debottlenecking projects, improved operational efficiency, and higher plant availability.

The overall mined metal production of Zinc International was at 49,000 tonnes, down 3% on year, owing to lower feed grades and lower lead recovery, offset partially by higher tonnes milled. The production in the company's Gamsberg mine in South Africa was 42,000 tonnes, up 3% on year.

In the oil and gas segment, average daily gross operated production was at 81,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 15% on year. Average daily working interest production was also down 15% at 53,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The production of saleable ore fell 3% on year to 2 million tonnes in the March quarter, driven by improved operational efficiencies and a ramping up of mine production at Iron Ore Goa. Production of pig iron ore was up 5% at 215,000 tonnes. Production of finished steel was 354,000 tonnes, down 1% on the year, achieving the highest ever quarterly billet production of 287,000 tonnes. Copper cathode production during the three months was at 42,000 tonnes, down 4% on the year. The company's power sales were at 5.52 billion units, up 43% on year.

Vedanta's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 177.54 billion, according to the average of estimates. The company's EBITDA for the corresponding year-ago period was INR 116.18 billion. Emkay Global has the highest estimate for EBITDA at INR 183.44 billion. ICICI Securities Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 163.46 billion.

"Average LME (London Metal Exchange) aluminium or zinc realisation jumped 13% or 2% while INR depreciated 2%. This, coupled with better volumes, led to a jump in overall EBITDA," ICICI Securities said in its earnings preview report.

For the aluminium business, ICICI Securities expects the EBITDA for the March quarter to be INR 82.06 billion, whereas Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. sees it at INR 84.73 billion. The aluminium business EBITDA was INR 46.58 billion in the year-ago quarter. For the zinc India business, Nuvama expects the EBITDA to be at INR 72.80 billion. Hindustan Zinc reported an EBITDA of INR 77.47 billion for the March quarter.

For the zinc international business, Nuvama expects the EBITDA to be INR 3.06 billion, whereas ICICI Securities expects it to be INR 1.74 billion. In the year-ago quarter, the EBITDA was INR 4 billion. "Zinc India's EBITDA to rise by 21% QoQ driven by higher prices and volume, but Zinc International's EBITDA is likely to decline by 26% QoQ due to lower volume," Nuvama said in its earnings preview report.

For the oil and gas business, ICICI Securities and Nuvama expect the EBITDA for the quarter to be INR 10.50 billion and INR 10.29 billion, respectively, down from INR 12.1 billion for the year-ago quarter.

ICICI Securities and Nuvama expect the EBITDA for the iron ore and steel business to be INR 5.67 billion and INR 5.38 billion, respectively. In the year-ago quarter, the combined EBITDA for the company's iron ore and steel businesses was INR 4.61 billion.

ICICI Securities expects the EBITDA for the power business to be INR 5.10 billion, whereas Nuvama expects the segment's EBITDA to be INR 5.30 billion. The power segment's EBITDA was INR 1.31 billion a year ago.

Emkay Global and Systematix Shares expect the company's EBITDA margin to be 35.9% and 37%, respectively. In the year-ago period, the margin was 35%.

The company will announce its March quarter earnings on Wednesday. Analysts will focus on the management's commentary on the demerger timeline of Vedanta, Vedanta Aluminium Metal Ltd., Talwandi Sabo Power Ltd., Malco Energy Ltd., and Vedanta Iron and Steel Ltd. They will also seek guidance for volumes and cost of production across verticals.

Friday, shares of Vedanta closed nearly 2% lower at INR 720.95 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares have risen almost 6% since the company reported its December quarter earnings on Jan. 29.

Of the seven brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a "buy" recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 858 per share. This is 19% higher than the current share price. Two brokerages have a "hold" call on the stock with an average target price of INR 815.

Hindustan Zinc, a subsidiary of Vedanta, reported a net profit of INR 49.97 billion, up nearly 68% on year, for the March quarter. Its net revenue for the reporting quarter was INR 134.88 billion, up nearly 49% on year.

The following are the March quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Vedanta Ltd. from six broking firms in descending order of the net profit estimate:

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Edited by Rajeev Pai

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