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Informist, Friday, Apr. 24, 2026

By Meera Nair

MUMBAI – A healthy growth in advances, deposits, and net interest income is likely to help RBL Bank post a strong set of earnings for the quarter ended March, though analyst would remain watch out for the trend in the lender's portfolio. 

Street estimates suggest the net profit will remain resilient, expecting it to rise fourfold on year to INR 2.56 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. Sequentially, the metric is seen rising 5.5%. The highest estimate for the bank's net profit is INR 3.12 billion from ICICI Securities while the lowest is INR 1.90 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. The lender will detail its earnings on Saturday. 

The bank's net interest income for the March quarter given by the average of estimates from six brokerages is at INR 17.44 billion, up 11.6% on year and over 5% on quarter. The highest estimate for the lender's net interest income is INR 18.03 billion from ICICI Securities, while the lowest is INR 16.98 billion from Motilal Oswal. "NII (net interest income) growth will be slightly higher than average loan growth due to rise in yield on advances outpacing cost of deposits," YES Securities said in their estimates report. 

ICICI Securities expects the bank's net interest margin at 4.69%, down 20 basis points on year, but sees a 6-basis-point rise sequentially. "We expect NIM (net-interest margin) to be stable for RBL," they added in their report. The brokerage also expected the slippages to improve sharply between 25% and 45% on quarter, keeping the growth in margin stable. Motilal Oswal also expects the net interest margin to be stable at 4.62% amid repo repricing and change in mix towards better yielding assets. Meanwhile, they also expect the operating expenses growth to trail loan growth, resulting in a slight decline in cost ratios.

Earlier this month, the lender had reported a total deposits of INR 1.39 trillion as of Mar. 31, up 25% on year, and gross advances of INR 1.15 trillion, up on 22% on year.   

YES Securities expects the slippages to be higher on sequential basis and sees operating expenses growth to be lower than business growth. They also see the provisions to be lower on a quarterly basis. "Sequential loan growth will be in the 4.5% ballpark due to idiosyncratic growth trajectory," the firm said.  

Credit costs of the bank are likely to remain elevated at 2.8% for the reporting quarter, amid rise in slippages from cash credits and microfinance institutions, Motilal Oswal said. The firm also expects healthy loan growth at 4.2% on quarter, led by wholesale commercial, loan against property, and a contained decline in microfinance institutions, supporting in the net profit's sequential growth. "We see credit costs improving yet elevated for RBL," ICICI Securities said.

Equiris says the trends in microfinance institution, credit card and new lines of businesses are the key things to look for in the fourth quarter results of company.

For the December quarter, the private sector bank had reported net profit of INR 2.14 billion on total income of INR 47.17 billion. The stock is up over 6% since the company reported its results for the December quarter on Jan. 17, but is down over 55% from its all-time high of INR 716.4, recorded on May 28, 2019. Tuesday, shares of RBL Bank had closed 2.9% higher at INR 321.40 on the National Stock Exchange. On Friday, shares of the bank were closed 2.86% higher at INR 321.40.

Of eight brokerages' report on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 370 per share, over 15% higher than the current market price. One brokerage has a 'hold' recommendation with a target price of INR 320 and two brokerage have a 'sell' recommendation.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for RBL Bank from six brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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