More Stories

Informist, Friday, Apr. 24, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Weak prices of alumina and lower sales volume are likely to hurt National Aluminium Co. Ltd.'s March quarter performance on a yearly basis, according to analysts. However, on a sequential basis, the company is likely to have done well mainly due to higher aluminium prices.

The state-owned aluminium company is likely to report a standalone net profit of INR 17.91 billion for the March quarter, down nearly 14% on year but around 12% higher from the trailing quarter, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. Its revenue is likely to fall over 5% on year to INR 49.90 billion, but rise 5.5% from a quarter ago.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 19.45 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. while the lowest estimate is INR 16.30 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a high of INR 53.70 billion from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. to a low of INR 47.98 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd.

NALCO is a key producer of alumina and aluminium, and sells both commodities in the domestic and international markets. Alumina is extracted from bauxite ore and then refined to produce aluminium.

Kotak Securities expects NALCO's alumina sales to fall 1% on year and around 15% on quarter to 343,000 tonnes. Aluminium sales are likely to decline over 3% on year and around 4% on quarter to 122,000 tonnes in the March quarter, the brokerage said.

NALCO's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter are likely to fall over 15% on year to INR 24.39 billion, as per the average of the estimates. From a quarter ago, the company's EBITDA is expected to rise 3%. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA is INR 26.42 billion from Motilal Oswal while the lowest is INR 22.30 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher.

Improvement in NALCO's EBITDA from a quarter ago is mainly driven by higher contribution from its aluminium segment due to higher prices during the March quarter, Emkay Global Financial Services said. Diverging price movements in aluminium and alumina during the quarter are likely to have similarly influenced the EBITDA from these segments.

Kotak Securities sees EBITDA from the alumina segment falling 66% on year and 20% on quarter to INR 4.7 billion while from the aluminium segment the measure is seen rising 44% on year and 23% on quarter to INR 19.7 billion. "Aluminium realisation will continue to compensate for weak alumina segment," ICICI Securities said in a report.

The company is "expected to benefit from strong aluminium prices during the quarter, which should support overall profitability. However, this is likely to be partially offset by lower alumina realisations and normalisation in alumina volumes," YES Securities said.

Market participants will await the management's guidance on price trends and disruptions to the company's exports, Motilal Oswal said. The company's volume guidance for financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) and commissioning timelines of alumina refinery and bauxite mine will also be monitored, Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. said.

For FY26, the company's net profit is likely to be in the range of INR 57.20 billion to INR 60.19 billion, according to three brokerage estimates. Its revenue for the year is expected to be between INR 177.30 billion and INR 179.92 billion. NALCO had reported a net profit of INR 53.25 billion in FY25 on revenues of INR 167.88 billion.

Of the eight brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation on the stock. Of the remaining, two brokerages have a "hold" recommendation and two have a "sell" call.

At 1240 IST, NALCO's shares were 1% lower at INR 434.85 on the National Stock Exchange. The company had reported a net profit of INR 16.01 billion for the December quarter on a revenue of INR 47.31 billion. Since then, the shares have risen around 13%. The company will detail its March quarter earnings on Apr. 30.

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for NALCO from seven brokerages, in INR billion, in descending order of the net profit estimate:

End

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.