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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 23, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The risks to agrifood systems and ecosystems are likely to soar in the future as the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events have risen sharply across the globe in the last 50 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Yields of staple crops such as maize and wheat have declined 6–7.2% per 1 degree Celsius of warming of temperatures, and it is projected to decline up to an additional 10% for every 1 degree Celsius warming in the future, the organisation said.

 

The impact of extreme heat events is relative to the context of when and where they occur. For most major agricultural crops, yield begins to decline when temperatures cross 30 degrees Celsius, and even lower for some crops such as potatoes and barley, the organisation said in a report titled "Extreme heat and agriculture," jointly released with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

 

Under high-emission scenarios, nearly half the world's cattle could be exposed to dangerous heat by the year 2100, with annual losses nearing $40 billion, the organisation said. Under a low-emission scenario, impacts from livestock exposure to extreme heat are reduced by nearly two-thirds, it said. For the most common livestock species, heat stress begins at above 25 degrees Celsius, and a bit lower for livestock such as chickens and pigs, which are unable to cool themselves by sweating, it said.

 

In aquatic systems, marine heatwaves have already caused repeated mass mortality events and are forcing entire fish stocks to migrate in search of cooler water, the organisation said. Marine products such as fish can suffer cardiac failure as they struggle to maintain elevated respiration rates in waters where extreme heat events lower dissolved oxygen levels. In 2025, more than 90% of the global ocean experienced at least one marine heatwave, according to the organisation's State of the Global Climate 2025 report.

 

Fruit and nut trees and natural forests are also subject to production losses and the growing risk of more frequent and intense wildfires, the organisation said.

 

For India, the organisation takes the example of the outcome of extremely hot weather which impacted the country in 2022. During this period, extreme temperatures were 8.0-10.8 degrees Celsius higher than normal and rainfall was 60-99% below normal in 10 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions. Wheat yields fell 9–23%, and for maize, stunted growth and a falling armyworm attack led to yield reductions of up to 18%. The impacts on chickpeas, or chana, included poor vegetative growth and poor pod set, along with wilting and shrivelling of grains, it said.

 

Rice, a key food crop grown in India, is also under threat from extreme heat and dry weather, the organisation said. High temperature extremes are anticipated to be more frequent and more intense throughout the Indian subcontinent, making rice farming increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, it said. To sustain production, several strategies have already been explored, which includes using cultivars that flower early in the morning, adjusting sowing and planting times, and breeding genetically resistant cultivars. Another possible strategy to mitigate heat stress is irrigation, which may have a surface cooling effect from local to subnational levels.

 

"The most intense risk from future heatwaves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus River basins," the organisation said. Without further mitigation, heatwaves will become a major threat to Indian agricultural workers and rice production, it said.

 

Extreme heat also takes a toll on agricultural labourers, the organisation said. "The number of days each year when it is simply too hot to work may rise to 250 per year in much of South Asia, tropical Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central and South America," it said.

 

Together, all these losses create a dangerous feedback loop, where shortfalls in production can lead to agricultural expansion to compensate, increasing greenhouse gas emissions that fuel further climate change.

 

The organisation points to the need for innovation and the implementation of adaptive measures such as selective breeding and crop choices adjusted to the new climate reality, adjusting planting windows, and altering management practices which can shelter crops and agricultural activities from the impacts of extreme heat. Early warning systems are an important tool in aiding farmers in their efforts to respond to extreme heat. Access to financial services such as cash transfers, insurance and payment schemes, and shock-responsive social protection schemes underpins all categories of adaptation options.

 

"With global mean temperatures on the cusp of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit outlined in the Paris Agreement, the urgency for adaptation and mitigation action only grows. The only durable solution to protect the future of global agrifood systems from the escalating threat of extreme heat lies in ambitious, multilateral climate change mitigation," the organisation said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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