Pegged Lower
India's GDP to grow 7% in Jan-Mar, lower than NSO's projection, says ICRA
This story was originally published at 22:06 IST on 22 April 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 22, 2026
NEW DELHI – ICRA Ltd. has pegged India's GDP growth in the March quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) at 7.0%. This is lower than the National Statistics Office's implicit growth projection of 7.3% for the March quarter and 7.8% for the December quarter, the rating agency said Wednesday. India's GDP is likely to grow 7.5% in FY26, according to ICRA. The estimate is 10 basis points lower than the National Statistics Office's second advance estimate of 7.6%.
"However, the nominal GDP growth forecast has been raised to 10.5% from 10.1% for FY27 because of higher inflation despite lower real GDP growth," ICRA said in a report.
The estimates have been revised because of the pressure stemming from the war in West Asia. "India Inc.'s profitability is likely to have seen some pressure on account of elevated energy prices and higher input costs in the quarter, although a large part of the adverse impact of the same is likely to play out in Q1 FY27," ICRA said in the report.
For FY26, when the Brent crude oil price averaged to $71.7 per barrel, ICRA has estimated India's current account deficit at 0.9% of GDP and projected the fiscal deficit at 4.5% of GDP.
In case the crude oil price averages to $85 per barrel in FY27, ICRA sees India's GDP growth slowing from its earlier projection of 7.1%. The rating agency estimates the GDP growth to slow to 6.5% amid "downside risks emerging from an escalation of the West Asia conflict and potential development of El Nino conditions". India's current account deficit is seen at 1.7% of GDP and fiscal deficit is pegged at 4.6% of GDP, according to the report. The rating agency has estimated India's CPI inflation 4.5% and WPI inflation at 3.5% if crude oil price averages at $85 per barrel. End
US$1 = INR 93.79
Reported by Shweta
Edited by Rajeev Pai
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
