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Informist, Monday, Apr. 20, 2026

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD – Reliance Industries Ltd. is slated to report a year-on-year drop in consolidated net profit for the March quarter, given the recent global developments that have directly affected the markets and operations of the oil-to-telecom-to-retail behemoth. The company's refining throughput, oil-to-chemicals business, and upstream segments have been hit by the military conflict in West Asia. According to analysts, only the stable performance of the telecommunications and consumer retail businesses of the company will help to prevent a major slide in the March quarter financial performance.

Reliance Industries is expected to report a year-on-year fall of nearly 2% in consolidated net profit to nearly INR 191 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The brokerages expect the private-sector giant's top line for the March quarter to be INR 2.8 trillion, up over 8% on year. In the same quarter a year ago, on a consolidated basis, the company's net profit was INR 194 billion and revenue was INR 2.6 trillion. The net profit was up 2.4% on year and the revenue was up nearly 10%.

The estimates for net profit vary widely, from a high of over INR 230 billion, according to YES Securities (India) Ltd., to a low of nearly INR 162 billion, as per ICICI Securities Ltd. The estimates for the company's revenue vary between a high of nearly INR 3 trillion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. and a low of nearly INR 2.6 trillion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

SEGMENT-WISE PERFORMANCE

The oil-to-chemicals business, which accounted for just over 60% of the top line of Reliance Industries for the December quarter, is likely to report weak earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter. Most of the brokerages see the oil-to-chemicals EBITDA ranging from flat to down 9% on year because of the pressure on petrochemical spreads, rise in shipment and insurance costs, diversion of propane to produce liquefied petroleum gas, jump in naphtha prices, fall in petrol and diesel cracks, and disruptions linked to the West Asia military conflict. They say this pressure on EBITDA could be partly offset by higher gross refining margins. "We expect oil-to-chemicals EBITDA to fall 4% on year and 12% on quarter, despite a sharp increase in Singapore gross refining margins (+1.8x year-on-year) due to negative factors arising out of tension in West Asia," Nuvama Institutional Equities said.

The Singapore gross refining margin acts as a proxy for the profitability of refiners in the Asia-Pacific region. The petrol or diesel crack spread is the difference between the price of petrol or diesel and the price of crude oil. Reliance Industries generally has a gross refining margin higher than the Singapore benchmark. For the March quarter, most analysts see the company's gross refining margin at over $13 per barrel. In the March quarter a year ago, the segment had reported an EBITDA of nearly INR 151 billion.

The retail segment of Reliance Industries is its second-largest business vertical. Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd. had contributed about 32% to the company's revenue for the December quarter. A cross-section of analysts expects the EBITDA growth of the retail segment to stay relatively modest at 2-5% on year, with the margin holding around 7.3%. ICICI Securities Ltd. sees the segment's revenue growing 4% on year during the March quarter, as retail continues the steady recovery seen in the past few quarters. The segment has generally benefitted from a split in the festival season last year between the September and December quarters, and the cut in goods and services tax implemented in September. The EBITDA of the retail segment of Reliance Industries for the December quarter had risen over 2% on year to INR 68 billion. For the March quarter a year ago, the EBITDA was over INR 65 billion.

Reliance Industries is the market leader in telecommunications through Reliance Jio Infocomm. This business accounted for about 14% of the company's consolidated revenue for the December quarter. The segment's EBITDA is expected to grow 14-16% on year, supported by higher average revenue per user and continued subscriber additions, according to analysts. For the March quarter a year ago, the segment's EBITDA was over INR 170 billion. Analysts see the sequential growth driven primarily by a modest increase in average revenue per user to INR 216 in the March quarter, up from INR 212.4 in the December quarter, and INR 206.2 a year ago. The company could also benefit from an increase in end-of-period subscriber base, which is the final net count of subscribers at the close of the reporting period. Published data show that Reliance Industries added about 2.44 million new subscribers in January and 1.62 million in February. As on Feb. 28, Reliance Jio had a subscriber base of 493.11 million.

The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate will announce its financial results for the quarter and the financial year ended Mar. 31 Friday. At 1424 IST, its shares were down 0.6% at INR 1,354.90. The stock has fallen about 7% since the company announced its December quarter results on Jan. 16. The benchmark Nifty 50 weakened about 5% in the same period.

The company is expected to report consolidated EBITDA, excluding other income, of nearly INR 460 billion, lower than INR 481 billion reported for the December quarter. The EBITDA projection of nearly INR 497 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. is the highest. ICICI Securities has the lowest forecast of nearly INR 441 billion.

All 14 research reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,696. This is up about 25% from the current price. 

Analysts keenly await clarity on movement in crude oil markets amid the current uncertainty in West Asia, any change in retail segment demand trends, and any pricing action in the telecom segment. Group Chairman Mukesh Ambani had announced a capital expenditure of INR 7 trillion over the next five years for the company's new energy business. Analysts will be keen to keep track of the progress on this front.

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Reliance Industries, in INR billion, from 11 brokerages, in descending order of net profit:

End

US$1 = INR 93.54

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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