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Informist, Monday, Apr. 20, 2026

 

By Astha Oriel

 

NEW DELHI – UltraTech Cement Ltd. is likely to report healthy growth in its top line and bottom line for the March quarter, largely mirroring the overall trend in the cement sector during the quarter, according to analysts. The increase in the company's top line is expected to be driven by higher volumes owing to more construction activity despite cement demand tapering in March due to the West Asia crisis, and an improvement in realisations from blended cement, analysts said. The company's bottom line is likely to benefit from higher operating leverage. 

 

The country's largest cement manufacturer is likely to report a 12% on-year increase in its net profit for the March quarter at INR 27.92 billion, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerage firms. Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. has the highest estimate of net profit at INR 31.71 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 25.07 billion by HDFC Securities Ltd. This is likely to be the fifth consecutive quarter of an increase in the company's net profit. Compared to the trailing quarter, the company's net profit is expected to rise nearly 54%. The company will report its March quarter results on Apr. 27. 

 

The net sales of the Mumbai-based cement manufacturer are likely to increase nearly 13% on year to INR 260.13 billion, according to the average of estimates. Nirmal Bang Equities has the highest estimate of the company's net sales at INR 273.22 billion, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 250.03 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. Sequentially, the company's revenue is expected to rise more than 19%. 

 

Revenue from ready-mix-concrete cement is expected to rise 10% year-on-year, whereas that from white cement is seen declining 9% year-on-year, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said in its earnings preview report. In the year-ago quarter, revenue from grey cement, ready-mix concrete, India Cements, and white cement was INR 183.47 billion, INR 18.19 billion, INR 11.97 billion, and INR 6.97 billion, respectively.  

 

Cement output increased nearly 11% on year in January, and more than 9% on year in February, as per data released by the commerce ministry. The aggregate cement volume for the sector is estimated to have increased 6-11% in the March quarter, according to analysts. A pick-up in construction activities, improvement in the capital expenditure of the government, as well as project executions have driven the cement volumes for the sector, Motilal Oswal said. 

 

For the March quarter, UltraTech is expected to see sales volume in the range of 38.9 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes, according to estimates from seven brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the company's consolidated sales volume was 41.02 million tonnes, of which the volume of domestic grey cement was 36.46 million tonnes. As of Apr. 17, the company's global capacity stood at 205.5 million tonnes per annum. 

 

The overall cement industry is expected to have seen a 1% on-year improvement in realisations in the March quarter, according to analysts. Consequently, UltraTech's net sales realisations are likely to have improved 1-2% during the quarter, according to estimates from nine brokerage firms. The highest estimate for net sales realisation is INR 5,810 per tonne from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd., whereas the lowest estimate is INR 4,938 per tonne by Nomura Equity Research. In the year-ago quarter, the company's grey cement realisation was INR 5,052 per tonne. 

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is likely to increase 11% on year to INR 52.45 billion for the March quarter, according to the estimates. Nirmal Bang Equities has given the highest estimate for EBITDA at INR 56.85 billion, and the lowest estimate is INR 49.33 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Sequentially, the company's EBITDA is expected to increase more than 29%. 

 

Analysts expect the company's EBITDA per tonne to fall to INR 1,085–INR 1,200, owing to an increase in input costs in the March quarter, despite an improvement in realisations. For the quarter, UltraTech is likely to witness a 1% increase in overall costs, according to analysts. In the year-ago quarter, the company's operating EBITDA per tonne was INR 1,225.

 

Shares of the company have declined nearly 4% since the company reported its December quarter results on Jan. 23. Shares of the company closed at INR 11,917 on the National Stock Exchange Monday.

 

Of the 16 brokerage recommendations on the company available with Informist, 13 have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 14,560 per share, over 22% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 12,278, whereas one has a 'sell' call on the stock.    

 

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for UltraTech Cement from 13 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	273.22	31.71	56.85
Nomura Equity Research	267.21	30.39	51.54
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	265.80	29.40	54.90
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	261.70	28.80	54.10
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	263.85	28.54	53.75
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd	255.95	28.13	54.21
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	258.22	27.98	53.37
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	252.19	27.26	49.33
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	262.76	27.17	52.45
Kotak Securities Ltd	250.03	26.99	51.41
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	258.31	25.96	50.59
ICICI Securities Ltd	257.24	25.54	49.67
HDFC Securities Ltd	255.20	25.07	49.65
Average	260.13	27.92	52.45

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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