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Informist, Monday, Apr. 20, 2026

 

By Eshitva Prakash

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in a range Tuesday, with their direction largely depending on the comments made by officials from Iran and the US before the two-week ceasefire agreement between the two warring parties ends Wednesday. Some analysts said investors expect the two countries to extend the ceasefire agreement and most of them are making bets with that assumption. However, US President Donald Trump's fresh threats over the weekend and the divergent narratives on the Islamabad peace talks are fuelling volatility in the equity market.

Trump said American and Iranian negotiators would resume talks in Islamabad on Monday, but Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said there was "no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now," according to several media reports. On Friday, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial traffic, sending crude prices tumbling. A day later, the country reclaimed control of the key chokepoint, after Trump refused to end the blockade of Iranian ports. This was followed by the US Navy seizing an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman. Trump called Iran's actions over the weekend a "total violation" of the ceasefire truce and said the US will strike Iran's power plants and bridges if it refuses a deal.

 

"It is difficult to reach an agreement with Iran because of the different factions with different agendas that are vying for control after the death of (Ali Hosseini) Khamenei," an analyst at a domestic broking firm said. "Iran's power centre is scattered, with some groups calling for continued action against the US and some calling for peace. One thing is clear, the war in West Asia will depend on negotiations with several actors within Iran rather than just talks with the regime under Mojtaba Khamenei," he said. 

 

Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, US equity futures fell after a sharp rally on Friday, when investors were expecting the US-Iran ceasefire to convert into a peace agreement this week. The June contract of the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 0.5% lower, tracking a near 5% rise in Brent crude oil June futures contract to $94.86 per barrel. "Investors interpreted the recent disruptions in the Middle East as potential negotiation tactics rather than the onset of a full-scale conflict. With the ceasefire set to expire this week, market participants remain cautious, awaiting further developments," said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments.

Foreign investors have been selling Indian equities for quite some time and are unlikely to return in the near-term owing to the relative underperformance of the domestic equity market when compared with those of other emerging markets, another domestic 

research analyst said. He added that the rupee's persistent depreciation despite measures by the Reserve Bank of India to strengthen the domestic currency, has added to FPI outflows. The two to three days of foreign portfolio investors buying Indian equities is not a long enough trend to set a precedent, he said. The downward momentum of the rupee in Monday's session was further compounded by a rise in dollar demand, as investors adopted a risk-averse sentiment, Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note. 

 

India and the US will resume trade negotiations in Washington from Monday. Both sides are expected to revisit the framework of the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement, after the US Supreme Court scrapped Trump's "liberation day" tariffs. 

 

Investors will also focus on the March quarter earnings of domestic companies. On Tuesday, HCL Technologies and Nestle India will release their earnings. Earnings of Persistent Systems, 360 ONE WAM, and Tata Elxsi are expected to drive stock-specific action. 

 

On Monday, the Nifty 50 ended at 24364.85 points, up just 11.30 points. The BSE Sensex ended flat at 78520.30 points. The 50-stock index is expected to face resistance at 24500 points and find support at 24300 points, Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, said.  End

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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