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Informist, Saturday, Apr. 18, 2026

 

By Avishek Rakshit

   

KOLKATA – Price hikes in January and the rollover effect of lower goods and services tax on daily consumer items are expected to have helped the consumer goods industry post a decent volume growth in the March quarter. Industry giant Hindustan Unilever Ltd. is expected to have translated this increase in volume into actual revenue growth in the March quarter, sector analysts said.

The Indian arm of the UK-headquartered company is expected to report a 3.8% on-year growth in net profit to over INR 26 billion in the March quarter and revenue is expected to increase by 5.9% on year to over INR 161 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. From a quarter ago, however, which includes the festive season, the net profit may decline by over 7% while revenue may increase by nearly 2%. The company will declare its results for the March quarter on Apr. 30.

 

Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. has the highest estimate for net profit of nearly INR 27 billion and Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the lowest of around INR 25 billion. Elara Securities also has the highest estimate for revenue of around INR 167 billion, and Kotak Securities Ltd. has the lowest estimate of INR 156 billion.

 

The industry trend remains bullish. The staples sales portfolio in the industry, which mainly comprises essential products like food, beverages, household goods, and hygiene products, is expected to have grown by 9% on year above its eight-quarter average of a little over 7% on year, according to brokerage Nomura Equity Research. The icing on the cake, according to Nomura, is a lower-priced raw materials inventory in the March quarter which is expected to drive operating profits by as much as 10.5% for the industry. This is much higher than its eight-quarter average growth of 4.5% on year.

 

After the government cut the goods and services tax in September, destocking in sales channels and stock clearance led consumer goods companies to witness declining or stagnated sales volume in the September quarter itself. However, by the end of the December quarter, the inventory levels had normalised and companies were able to register volume growth in the March quarter.

 

Sector analysts estimate that as much as 40% of HUL's portfolio, including soap, toothpaste, shampoo, hair oil, talcum powder, lifestyle nutrition and other food products, benefited from the GST cut and registered volume growth in the March quarter. While Nuvama estimates HUL's sales volume in the March quarter to have grown by 3% on year, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. sees it up 5% in the aforementioned quarter. 

 

The consumer goods company is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of over INR 37 billion, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. Brokerage Elara Securities' estimate for EBITDA is the highest at nearly INR 39 billion and Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.' estimate of over INR 35 billion is the lowest.

 

Brokerage Kotak Securities estimates HUL's gross margins to increase by 70 basis points on year to 51.2% primarily on account of low-cost inventory, improving sales mix, and price hikes in the March quarter. The demerger of the ice-cream business in December is expected to improve the EBITDA margins as well. Kotak Securities expects HUL's gross margins to improve by 75 basis points on year to 23.5%. Of this, margin improvement of 40-50 basis points is expected from the demerger of the ice-cream business alone.

 

Friday, shares of HUL closed nearly 5% higher at INR 2,240.80 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are down 7.5% since the company announced its December quarter earnings in February. 

 

Of the 16 research reports on the company available with Informist, 13 have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 2,787 and three brokerages have a 'hold' call on the stock at an average target price of INR 2,568.

 

The following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for HUL from 11 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

 

Broker Name	Net Sales (in INR million)	Net Profit (in INR million)	EBITDA (in INR million)
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	1,66,900	26,900	38,800
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	1,62,207	26,897	38,237
Nomura Equity Research	1,65,774	26,857	38,800
Kotak Securities Ltd	1,56,457	26,202	36,718
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	1,61,080	26,122	37,356
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	1,59,233	25,996	36,784
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	1,60,116	25,951	38,045
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	1,58,226	25,881	35,499
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd	1,58,250	25,863
YES Securities (India) Ltd	1,62,537	25,756	37,427
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	1,61,916	24,913	36,366
Average	1,61,154	26,122	37,403

 

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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