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Informist, Friday, Apr. 17, 2026

 

By Avishek Rakshit

 

KOLKATA – The trend of improving consumer demand despite price hikes in the March quarter is expected to boost the revenue performance of consumer goods companies. While an overall uptick in demand has led to an improvement in sales volumes, price hikes are expected to further aid revenue growth. Companies mostly focussed on consumer staples benefitted the most, sector analysts said, with some exceptions.

 

Sales channel checks carried out by brokerages suggest that products in the home and personal care space got decent traction in the March quarter. The extent of volume growth varies widely with companies like Honasa Consumer Ltd. expected to report a high 20% year-on-year rise and others like Marico Ltd., Godrej Consumer Products Ltd., and Dabur Ltd. likely to report an increase of 7-9%.

 

Despite the weak start to the summer, which usually affects the consumption of aerated drinks, fruit juices, and other chilled beverages, a similar trend in volume growth is visible across food and beverages companies, brokerages said. Companies focussed on this segment like Tata Consumer Products Ltd., Britannia Industries Ltd., and Varun Beverages Ltd. are expected to report volume growth of anywhere between 7% and 14%.

 

However, things may not go well for ITC Ltd., the country's largest consumer products company in terms of revenue. When ITC increased cigarette prices sharply following the government raising taxes substantially, its cigarette sales volume fell. Brokerages estimate the fall at 1-4%. Industry officials estimate the decline at 3.5% in March alone.

 

Consumer durables companies also felt the heat in the quarter. According to a report from HDFC Securities Ltd., demand was subdued across most consumer durables categories. Demand for cooling products like air conditioners, coolers, and fans was muted on account of a high base, unseasonal rains in the north, and delayed summer in the south, affecting the performance of companies like Voltas Ltd. and Blue Star Ltd. Demand momentum in the wire and cables segment also slowed during the quarter, impacted by channel inventory reduction. Lighting products' sales growth is likely to remain in the low single digit due to price deflation, thereby hurting the performance of companies like Havells India Ltd. and Polycab India Ltd.

 

The aggregate net profit for the March quarter of the 17 consumer goods and durables companies that are part of the Nifty 200 index is likely to rise 5.1% on year and their revenue is expected to rise 14.4% on year, according to the average of estimates from 20 brokerages.

 

However, this expected year-on-year financial performance of the consumer industry is worse than its showing in the December quarter as the projected aggregate net profit for the March quarter may decline 9.3% sequentially and revenue may rise by less than a percent.

 

Of the 17 companies, six are expected to report an on-year decline in net profit for the quarter. The net profit of 11 companies is expected to decline on quarter. While all 17 companies are expected to report year-on-year revenue growth, eight may register a sequential decline in revenues, according to the average of estimates.

 

SECTORAL PLAY

In the pure-play consumer goods sector--which includes foods, personal care, beverages, and alcoholic beverages--there are 12 companies that account for 64% of the sector's projected revenue for the March quarter. The aggregate top line of these 12 companies is expected to increase 8.3% on year, but the growth in net profit is likely to remain muted, rising just 1.2% on year. The performance of the three largest companies--Hindustan Unilever Ltd., ITC, and Patanjali Foods Ltd.--which influence the showing of the sector to a large extent is expected to be mixed. ITC and Patanjali may register a fall in profits on year. This may have a negative bearing on the sectoral growth.

 

The jewellery segment is expected to drive the growth in net profit in the sector. Titan Ltd. and Kalyan Jewellers Ltd., the two jewellery companies among the 17 consumer companies, are expected to report a net profit growth of over 58% on year and revenue growth of over 48%. However, sequentially, the revenue and profit of both may decline by over 11% and 19%, respectively, mainly because of the high base in the December quarter which saw the winter festival season.

 

The consumer durables segment, however, may see its profit for the March quarter decline by over 5% on year, although revenue is expected to increase by 4.6%, mainly on account of the expected poor show by Voltas and Havells.

 

Following are the March quarter earnings estimates from 20 brokerages for the 17 companies in the consumer sector that are part of the Nifty 200 index. Sales, profit after tax, and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation figures in INR million. Year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter change in percentage:

 

Company name	Sales	PAT	Sales Y-o-Y change	PAT Y-o-Y change	Sales Q-o-Q change	PAT Q-o-Q change	EBITDA	Number of estimates
Britannia Industries +	48,836	6,708	10.18	19.79	(1.74)	(7.93)	9,496	11
Colgate Palmolive (India)	15,339	3,532	4.88	(0.49)	3.22	6.32	4,899	11
Dabur India +	29,787	3,481	5.25	8.73	(16.30)	(39.46)	4,558	12
Dixon Technologies (India) +	105,071	1,776	2.08	18.02	(1.54)	(38.19)	3,905	10
Godrej Consumer Products +	39,192	5,705	8.93	28.70	(4.39)	(3.13)	8,469	10
Havells India	71,101	4,605	8.85	(11.82)	27.57	32.95	6,808	12
Hindustan Unilever	161,154	26,122	5.92	3.82	1.96	(7.21)	37,403	11
ITC	182,610	44,211	5.87	(9.31)	1.35	(17.56)	60,609	10
Kalyan Jewellers India+	92,678	3,738	49.93	99.22	(10.40)	(18.36)	6,431	2
Marico +	33,180	3,870	21.54	12.82	(6.19)	(13.43)	5,303	12
Nestle India	62,721	9,754	13.96	10.16	10.68	13.27	15,031	11
Patanjali Foods	105,221	3,408	8.56	(4.95)	0.37	(45.38)	5,051	1
Tata Consumer Products +	52,703	4,086	14.37	36.42	3.10	0.28	7,505	10
Titan Co.	198,588	12,976	47.35	49.15	(11.82)	(19.31)	20,951	8
United Spirits	30,918	4,367	4.95	(3.18)	(16.05)	(18.99)	5,513	10
Varun Beverages +	60,110	7,578	7.98	4.31	42.97	200.97	13,307	6
Voltas +	49,629	2,292	4.10	(4.89)	61.62	105.69	3,310	13
Total	13,38,837	1,48,207	14.35	5.08	0.81	(9.32)

 

Note: + denotes consolidated earnings

 

Estimates from: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., Antique Stock Broking Ltd., Centrum Broking Ltd., Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd., Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., HDFC Securities Ltd., HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd., IIFL Capital Services Ltd., JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd., Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., Sharekhan Ltd., Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd., and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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